In 30 seconds: April data showed a split economy with Empire Manufacturing beating expectations and mortgage applications ticking up, while NAHB homebuilder sentiment hit a seven-month low, small business optimism fell sharply, and import/export price inflation accelerated. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil and gas supply chains, sending crude prices toward $100 per barrel and retail diesel to $5.61/gallon, while European energy markets show tentative signs of easing and the US ramps output to record highs amid ceasefire talks. Equity markets staged a dramatic recovery to new all-time highs, driven by AI optimism and hopes for a Hormuz ceasefire, even as breadth indicators flash overbought signals and the CFTC investigates suspicious pre-announcement trading surges. Critics highlight structural inequities in US tax and housing policy, including NYC developers gaming 99-unit tax break thresholds, a higher federal tax burden on young married couples versus retirees, and a 'Big Beautiful Bill' deduction exclusively benefiting the wealthiest age cohort.
New orders surged to 19.3 from 6.4, shipments jumped to 20.2 from 6.9, and employment ticked up to 9.8 from 5.8. The catch: prices paid leapt to 51.0 from 36.6, and the six-month outlook collapsed to 19.6 from 31. Housing, meanwhile, remains stuck in the basement. Present sales sat at 37, six-month expectations slid to 42, and buyer traffic remains anemic. Mortgage applications rose 1.8% last week, their first increase in five weeks. The net percentage of small firms reporting positive profit trends dropped 11 points to -25. Treasury Secretary Bessent argued the Fed has been wrong on inflation and that rates "should come down a lot more."
Brent crude touched $120 before sellers emerged, with Dated Brent dropping roughly ~$15 per barrel from Monday's level as physical premia softened. Domestically, inventories are thinning fast. US total commercial petroleum stocks fell 9 million barrels last week, with gasoline down 6.3 million barrels and diesel down 3.2 million barrels. Crude stocks slipped a comparatively modest 0.9 million barrels. US total output has pushed above 12.7 million barrels per day, an all-time high. Europe, oddly, looks calmer. TTF natural gas sits at roughly €41 per MWh, down roughly 44% from the war's peak, though still roughly 28% above pre-war levels. US natural gas futures closed at $2.61, up 0.46% on the day. The geopolitical picture is characteristically incoherent. The US is sending 10,000+ more troops to the Middle East while simultaneously pursuing ceasefire talks in Islamabad. Equity markets gapped higher last week on hopes those negotiations would produce a détente. S&P 500 all-time high set. Inflation, for its part, has hit a three-year high. The 1990 Gulf War analog is instructive: oil surged to $100 in today's terms, P/E ratios fell 16%, and the whole thing quickly reversed. Markets are betting on the same script.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 on 2026-04-15, up 0.80% on the day and, yes, a new all-time closing high. S&P 500 hit a new all-time high for the first time since January. S&P 500: 7,000. It is the first new high since January. The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 11 consecutive sessions, matching the historic run of November 2021. The megacaps did the heavy lifting. Microsoft is on pace for just the third 3-day streak of 2%+ daily moves since the dot-com bust, while its shares gained 10% this week, adding nearly $300 billion in market cap. Tesla jumped 6%, breaking above the top of its downtrend channel. Semiconductors' share of the S&P 500 stands at nearly 16%. Breadth indicators tell a more cautious story, for now. 10-day advance/decline lines have skyrocketed over the last two weeks (with the exception of Energy). But the macro backdrop is less tidy. Equities and bonds are positively correlated again, a déjà vu to 2022. The long tech trade dates to Dec 2022, when liquidity bottomed. New highs, old questions.
There is a certain elegance to a tax code that manages to be regressive across both income and age simultaneously. Consider: in 2025, a 25-year-old married couple earning $1,50000 pays $3,000 more in federal income tax than a 65-year-old married couple with the same income. Same household income, different birthdays, different tax bills. Not a fair tax policy, as the rhetorical question goes. The generational math gets worse when you zoom out. American households age 65-74 have over 10x the net worth of American households under 35. Not really where the help is most needed, you might observe, but the code does not appear to share your concern. The mechanism here is straightforward. The Social Security trust funds are funded through payroll taxes and taxes on Social Security benefits paid by higher-income beneficiaries. When taxes on benefits are cut, the income to the trust fund decreases, accelerating the date when the fund's reserves are expected to be depleted. It is a neat trick. The throughline is consistent.
Here is what your portfolio did this session.
S&P 500: 7,022.95, up 0.80% on the day
10-Year Treasury yield: 4.28%, up 3 bp on the day
30-Year Treasury yield: 4.89%, up 2 bp on the day
13-Week T-Bill yield: 3.61%, flat 0 bp on the day
Gold: $4,817.50, down 0.16% on the day
Fed funds rate: 3.75, flat 0.00% on the day
Long bonds (TLT): $86.83, down 0.44% on the day