In 30 seconds: The S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs on the back of 15% year-over-year Q1 earnings growth, a 13th consecutive quarter of positive growth, though the CAPE ratio at 41 signals historically stretched valuations. The ongoing Hormuz crisis has pushed Brent crude toward $110 and December 2026 futures up 42% YTD, inflicting economic damage on Germany, Pakistan, and other oil-dependent economies while the US releases SPR reserves at crisis pace. The SOX index surged 47% in 18 days driven by AI enthusiasm, though semis are showing early signs of rotation as software rebounds and Mag 7 stocks diverge, with some analysts warning AI revenue is over-allocated in market cap. Shell has agreed to acquire Canadian oil and gas producer ARC Resources for $13.6 billion, making Canada a core area for the company and fulfilling its previously stated need for strategic M&A to secure its long-term production outlook.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,173.91 on 2026-04-27, up 0.12% on the day. The index has now posted 4 consecutive weekly gains, the longest such streak since October 2024, with 5 record closes in the past 8 trading days and 9 for the year. That year-to-date tally is on par with 2007 and 1966. The fundamental case is straightforward enough. With 28% of S&P 500 companies having reported, first quarter earnings are growing 15% year over year, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of positive growth. Profit margins have reached a record 15.2%. Twelve-month S&P 500 earnings estimates are up 10% year to date and have risen 6.5% since the war started. The valuation overlay is less comforting. Traders, for their part, seem unbothered. Dip buying has become reflexive, and sensitivity to extreme rhetoric has faded. Whether that confidence is earned or borrowed is, as always, a question the market will answer on its own schedule.
The same S&P 500 profit margins driving the market to all-time highs are also a factor in the Hormuz crisis's economic pain.
Brent crude closed at $101.51 on 2026-04-27, down 3.63% on the day. The front-month number understates the market's conviction about duration: the December 2026 Brent Crude Oil Futures contract hit a new high, up 42+% year to date and still holding its uptrend. When the back of the curve moves like that, the market is telling you this is not a weekend blockade. The pain is distributed unevenly. The US is relatively insulated from the Hormuz closure, which is nice if you live there and less nice if you are Pakistan, which just hiked interest rates by 100bp to 11.5% — a situation shared by most low-income countries, where willingness to spend is at a 2-year low. Meanwhile the US is doing what it does in emergencies. The US SPR release is finally picking up to more than 1 million barrels per day. American equities, improbably, are fine. The S&P 500 is up more than 5% year to date, with 12-month S&P 500 earnings estimates climbing 10% over the same period, leaving valuations cheaper now than at the start of the year. Profit margins sit at a record 15.2%. One last oddity: West Texas natural gas hit -$10 per mBtu over the weekend, a record low where it costs a producer money to get rid of the molecules. Oil too expensive, gas too cheap, and producers paying someone to take molecules off their hands.
The SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) has ripped 47% in 18 days. But the streak looks in jeopardy today. $SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) slipped 1.25% in the first 20 minutes of trading. The more interesting signal is the rotation underneath. The long semis, short software trade is seeing some unwind this morning. NVIDIA $NVDA, Amazon $AMZN, Alphabet $GOOGL were trading higher pre-market, while Microsoft $MSFT, Meta $META, Apple $AAPL, Tesla $TSLA were trading in the red pre-market. NVIDIA $NVDA hit a closing high on Friday, and Amazon $AMZN touched an intraday high the same day. The deeper question is whether the party has oversold its ticket allotment. One view holds that investors think they have bought more of the available revenue by 2 or 3x. This math traces back to January 10, 2023, when MSFT announced its first phase of the OpenAI partnership and launched the AI Trade. At some point the revenue has to show up, or the valuation math stops working.
Shell has agreed to buy Canadian oil and gas producer ARC Resources in a deal valued at $13.6 billion, making Canada one of its core areas. Shell needs to buy something or someone looking to 2030 and beyond. ARC Resources produces roughly 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Shell acquisition of ARC Resources: $13.6 billion.
Here is what your weekly spend looks like right now.
Gas (per gallon): $4.04, down 1.92% on the week
Groceries (CPI food at home): 343.51, up 0.01% on the month
Eating out (CPI food away from home): 346.60, down 0.01% on the month