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Macro Muse · September 14, 2026
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The Fed cut rates 175 basis points and all you got was a 5% ten-year and six-dollar diesel

Silver down 1.49% on the day. The US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since 2007/2023, driven by persistent inflation concerns and Fed policy, with ripple effects across global sovereign bond markets including UK gilts.

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— Today’s Macro Regime

The quantitative state of the economy.

As of September 14, 2026 · refreshing

Leading regime

Soft Landing

27.2%Moderate confidence

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 25.1%

  • Cooling24.5%
  • Soft Landing27.2%
  • Overheating25.1%
  • Inflation Shock21.7%
  • Contraction1.5%
What changed

Inflation Shock up 3.1% to 21.7% (was 18.6%)

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