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Macro Muse · October 13, 2026
Latest briefing

The bull market turned four and got a rotation instead of a cake

S&P 500 total return index up 127% since the October 2022 low. The S&P 500 bull market celebrates its fourth anniversary with 124 all-time closing highs since October 2022, even as rising real yields drive rotation out of small-caps and semis into mega-caps and defensive sectors.

Est. read · 4 min

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CPI release · September 2026

Wednesday, October 14 at 8:30 AM EDT

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— Today’s Macro Regime

The quantitative state of the economy.

As of October 13, 2026 · refreshing

Leading regime

Soft Landing

31.2%Low confidence

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 30.5%

  • Cooling30.5%
  • Soft Landing31.2%
  • Overheating19.9%
  • Inflation Shock16.3%
  • Contraction2.1%
What changed

Cooling up 2.2% to 30.5% (was 28.3%)

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