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Oil at $100 says the disinflation story runs on fumes while the government borrows to pay yesterday's bills
average diesel price up 60% since the start of the year. Multiple indicators — surging oil near $100/barrel, rising diesel prices, elevated Treasury yields, and sticky inflation expectations — point to persistent inflationary pressure even as some Fed officials see wage growth as consistent with a return to 2%.
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CPI release · August 2026
Friday, September 11 at 8:30 AM EDT
We publish after the close on release days
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As of September 8, 2026
Soft Landing
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Closest alternative: Cooling at 26.0%
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- Soft Landing28.5%
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- Inflation Shock18.7%
- Contraction1.9%
Cooling down 0.9% to 26.0% (was 26.9%)
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