In 30 seconds: SpaceX went public under ticker $SPCX, opening at $150 and reaching a $2.2-2.3 trillion market cap, making it the 6th largest US company and Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire, while confusion with Virgin Galactic's $SPCE ticker caused collateral volatility. June University of Michigan consumer sentiment rebounded sharply to 48.9 while both 1-year and 5-10 year inflation expectations fell more than forecast, complementing solid jobs data and improving S&P 500 market breadth ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealed roughly 7 million barrels per day are flowing through the Strait of Hormuz—about half pre-war volumes—as repeated US-Iran deal headlines drove Brent crude down roughly $10/bbl from its weekly high amid widespread market skepticism. Brad Setser and others argued that China's current account surplus has been systematically understated for years, that the yuan faces appreciation pressure the PBOC is actively resisting, and that G7 efforts to coordinate on global trade imbalances have been undermined by both Chinese obstinance and US unilateralism.
The rocket company went public under ticker $SPCX, priced at $135 per share, opened at $150, rallied to $160, and settled around $165. To put the valuation in context: SpaceX $SPCX trades at 119x trailing sales. Palantir fetches 63x. NVIDIA gets 20x. The S&P 500 as a whole trades at 3.5x. There are now 12 US public companies worth more than a trillion dollars. The collateral damage was entertaining. Virgin Galactic $SPCE fell 30% as traders incorrectly thought it was SpaceX because of its ticker. Goldman Sachs served as lead left underwriter — and its stock is up 70% over the past year. Good work if you can get it.
The same RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research driving SpaceX IPO Debuts as $2+ Trillion Company is also a factor in US Consumer Sentiment, Inflation, and Labor Data Improve.
Current conditions rose to 48.4 versus an expected 46.1, while the expectations component jumped to 49.3 against a consensus of 44.9. These numbers remain depressed, but the direction is up. More consequential for the Fed: inflation expectations fell across both horizons. One-year expectations dropped to 4.6%, below the 4.9% estimate and the prior reading of 4.8%. The five-to-ten-year measure declined to 3.4% from 3.9%, undershooting the 3.8% forecast. If you are a central banker who spent the spring worrying that tariff-driven price fears were becoming unanchored, this is the print you wanted. In a slower-growing population, you do not need massive payroll numbers to keep things healthy. Equity internals reflect the improving tone. The S&P 500 itself closed at 7,431.46, up 0.5026% on the day. The household net worth to disposable income ratio stood at 7.8 times disposable income as of Q1 2026, well above its historical average.
The US Navy has been escorting oil tankers and other ships through the Strait of Hormuz, on some nights helping more than 20 vessels. Brent fell roughly $10 per barrel from Monday's high, settling in the 80s on Friday. On a single session, crude dropped 3.5 dollars per barrel. That is a market pricing in peace, or at least pricing in the rumor of peace, which in oil markets amounts to the same thing until it doesn't. The options market re-bid calls after the alleged Iran deal, shifting from put-skewed to call-bid over the last three days. The strategic petroleum reserve drawdown remains well below 2022 levels.
The case that China's current account surplus has been systematically understated is, at this point, fairly detailed. China adjusted its data to knock a percentage point off its BoP goods surplus in 2022, and a poorly documented methodological change affecting BoP goods surplus reporting in 21/22 opened a gap between customs data and balance-of-payments reporting. That gap has mostly disappeared in the recent monthly data. Flaws in China's accounting for investment income started to have a real impact with rising US rates, compounding the distortion. Correctly measured, China's surplus reached its current level several years ago. The surge in Asia's surplus didn't start in 2025. The IMF just missed it for several years. China engineered a bubble economy on its own in the 2010s — with its own real estate boom that then turned to bust on its own. On the currency side, the yuan does not float freely and is not going to float freely anytime soon; China's financial account is not open. The relevant question is whether China's trade flows are strong enough to support a stronger yuan within the current regime — and the answer is clearly yes. The yuan is currently under appreciation pressure. Settlement data is very clear. A recent 20%-plus real-terms appreciation just reversed the depreciation in H1 25 from following the dollar; it hasn't corrected the structural undervaluation. China repegged to the dollar from 2008 to 2010. So who fixes this? The US is not interested in joint action; Trump and his team prioritize rolling out their own protectionist measures against Europe rather than coordination against China. China canceled two important diplomatic meetings with the EU this month as tensions over soaring Chinese exports to the bloc build. The G-7 countries bailed China out during covid by doing large stimuluses that allowed China to recover via exports without much stimulus of its own. The IMF is only concerned about excessive trade (or savings and investment) imbalances. CNY real terms appreciation: 20% plus. The dollar is overvalued, and key Asian currencies are undervalued against the world, not just the US.
Here is what moved this week.
S&P 500: 7,431.46, up 0.50% on the day
Gold: $4,232.20, up 3.47% on the day
US Dollar (DXY): 99.78, down 0.08% on the day
WTI crude: $84.44, down 3.73% on the day
Gas (per gallon): $4.15, down 3.69% on the week
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.52%, up 4 bp on the week
Initial jobless claims: 229,000, up 1.78% on the week
Continuing claims: 1,795,000, up 1.36% on the week
Average hourly earnings: $37.53, up 0.32% on the month