In 30 seconds: The S&P 500 is up roughly 10% YTD with breadth expanding into small and mid caps as the Magnificent Seven underperforms, even as sentiment indicators show unusually high bearishness and record put volumes on a modest 4% pullback. Brad Setser's analysis of Chinese balance-of-payments data shows the Chinese state financial system has intervened by roughly $800 billion over the past 12 months to resist yuan appreciation, even as China's trade surplus with Europe hits record highs exceeding EUR 300 billion. SpaceX's massive IPO raised ~$86 billion at a $2.3 trillion market cap and 125x sales, highlighting extreme valuations across the tech sector, with Applied Materials also hitting an all-time high price-to-sales ratio surpassing the dot-com bubble peak. A US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered a roughly 5% drop in oil prices, boosting equity markets, while SPR releases continued to record lows and analysts noted the disruption ultimately failed to cause a major energy crisis.
The S&P 500 closed at 7554.29 on 2026-06-15, up 1.6528% on the day, and roughly 10% on the year. S&P 500: 10%. The index recently completed a record-breaking 9-week win streak, then pulled back modestly. Historically, 4 weeks after a 9-week win streak saw stocks higher 9 out of 10 times. The market has never peaked for the year in June, though stocks peaked on June 2. The Mag 7 was down YTD as of Friday. Meanwhile, the rotation away from this area and into everything else continued: micro-caps and small-caps led the way higher last week with gains of 4%+. That rotation — away from the Mag 7 and into everything else — has been building for a while, with 5 of 7 Magnificent Seven stocks underperforming the S&P 500 since the start of 2025, a very different picture than 2023-2024. Large caps have now outperformed small caps for 5 consecutive years, the longest streak since 1994-1998. That prior streak was followed by 6 straight years of Small Cap outperformance from 1999 to 2004. US Large Caps vs US Small Caps up 5% in 2025. S&P 500: 10%. On the macro side, manufacturing activity has been well supported by high-technology industries, with selected high-tech factory output running at an annualized 23.3% over the last three months. One strategist suggests yields and the dollar could be headed lower, which would be supportive. S&P 500: 10%. S&P 500: 10%.
China's latest balance sheet and foreign-exchange flow data tell a straightforward story if you are willing to do the arithmetic. China's exports volume growth: ~ 10% a year.
SpaceX went public at a $2.3 trillion market cap, ranking it 6th largest by that measure. Its revenue, however, ranks only 198th largest. The gap between those two numbers is the whole story: the stock trades at 125x sales. The company sold 638.9mn shares in total, raising roughly $86.3bn, of which $85.7bn went to the company itself — the remainder went to selling shareholders. SpaceX greenshoe over-allotment: 83.3mn. The SPCX ticker now has a float of roughly 650 million shares, with SPCX options set to begin trading tomorrow. You might look at 125x sales and think that is a number reserved for companies that have invented cold fusion, but the broader tech landscape suggests the market has simply recalibrated what counts as expensive. Palantir trades at 66x sales. Broadcom sits at 26x. Even Tesla, which sells cars, trades at 15x. The S&P 500 as a whole sits at 3.6x. Applied Materials is trading at 16x sales — a record valuation that actually exceeds its April 2000 peak of 15x sales. Applied Materials 16x vs Applied Materials April 2000 peak 15x sales. If you are the kind of person who finds comfort in historical comparisons, this is not the one you wanted. The market is telling you, very loudly, that it believes in the future. The question, as always, is which future it has priced.
The US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, and crude responded by falling roughly 5% on the session. Equities, naturally, loved it: markets were a sea of green with plenty of new record highs. The oil decline is providing a renewed boost to stock markets. But the speed of the unwind tells you something about how much geopolitical premium was baked into the barrel. Murban oil prices were up 120% year over year two months ago. Two weeks ago, that figure had already compressed to 49%. This morning, it stood at just 18%. Brent, for its part, was running only 12% above year-ago levels this morning. The 2026 shock was worse than 1973, 1979 and 2022 together. And yet, one energy journalist observed that the world's largest ever oil supply disruption failed to create a major energy crisis. The cost of oil, natural gas, electricity and coal never surpassed the previous peaks. Emirates (Adnoc) doesn't produce 7mbd — and they can get some out via pipeline. This number would imply they were getting an accumulated stock out not just the flow. It's about half the normal flow through the strait from all the GCC after the Saudi pipeline. Natural Gas: $3.16.
Here is what your weekly spend looks like right now.
Gas (per gallon): $4.15, down 3.69% on the week
Groceries (CPI food at home): 345.71, up 0.15% on the month
Eating out (CPI food away from home): 348.89, up 0.16% on the month
Average hourly earnings: $37.53, up 0.32% on the month