In 30 seconds: SpaceX's stock surged over 60% from its IPO price, briefly surpassing Amazon and then Microsoft in market cap despite negative net income, drawing comparisons to the 2021 meme stock mania. A US-Iran ceasefire agreement triggered a sharp 30%+ collapse in oil prices, with Brent crude approaching contango, Iranian tankers resuming movement, and the ECB criticized for hiking rates just before the price crash. Analysts debate the true extent of US dependence on China, arguing that while final assembly has shifted, reliance on Chinese critical minerals, components, and EV supply chains has deepened significantly since 2001. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%, the highest since 1995, and signaled further hikes, though the move failed to meaningfully strengthen the yen.
The normal way a company becomes one of the largest in the world is by selling a lot of things to a lot of people and keeping some of the money. SpaceX has found a more efficient approach: skip the profits entirely. By its third day of gains, SpaceX was trading the third highest single-stock volume in the market. Consider the comparison. Microsoft Sales: $318 billion. SpaceX Sales: $19 billion. Microsoft Net Income: $125 billion. SpaceX Net Income: -$9 billion. You look at those two columns and think, yes, these companies should be valued identically. Amazon Sales: $743 billion. The market is nothing if not precise. The options market caught the fever immediately. $SPCX options volume hit 600,000 contracts by 10:40 AM, chasing TSLA options volume at 800,000 against a typical daily run rate of 2-3 million. Options launched with strikes ranging from 25 to 380 and standard monthly expirations including the 6/18 expiry, which tells you something about the range of outcomes people are pricing. SpaceX is down more than 50% in a year. The last time cautionary notes about speculative manias provoked this reaction was in 2021, during the meme stock/SPAC/ARKK manias. That ended about how you'd expect. The lock-up schedule offers a slow drip of reality. The big wave comes when SpaceX pre-IPO investors and employees can sell after the first earnings report (August 2026). Until then, the float is thin, the enthusiasm is thick, and the income statement is a rounding error with a minus sign.
On Sunday, Iran and the US reached what amounts to a 60-day ceasefire, during which the major issues of the war will be negotiated. Oil has fallen 20% over the past five days, and the drawdown from peak now stands at 30% as of June 16, 2026. Brent briefly touched $80 per barrel. Dubai has flipped into contango, and prompt timespreads across all major benchmarks have collapsed to below $1 per barrel. Brent itself last saw prompt contango in late-February, immediately before the onset of the Iran war. Dubai crude oil physical premia: plus $0.65 a barrel. The Brent six-month calendar spread, which hit an all-time high of more than $37 per barrel on March 31, had been just $3 before the war. It has now unwound to a little over $4 per barrel. Chinese energy companies had been tallying bright profit guidance from the first half of the year, after the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. The ECB, which held its meeting just last week using a mild-scenario oil price assumption of $88 a barrel, now finds crude already 10% below that figure.
The same China Beige Book driving Oil Price Plunge as Iran-US Ceasefire Takes Hold is also a factor in US-China Supply Chain Dependence Debate Intensifies.
There is a comforting story people like to tell about US-China decoupling, and it goes like this: the supply chains have diversified, the dependence has shrunk, we are freer than we were. One economist offers a colder summary. The US has reduced its reliance on China for final assembly. That's it. Starting to make a real effort on critical minerals but not doing much on any of the other vectors of supply chain vulnerability. The final-assembly line moved. Everything underneath it, not so much. China's passenger car sales will fall 15-20% in 2026. China is on pace to export 10 million vehicles this year, with roughly half of those being EVs. Europe, meanwhile, is changing its trade policy on China. The real question isn't where the boxes ship from — it's whether the stuff inside them still traces back to the same place. We are massively more dependent on China than we were in 2001.
This marks the fifth consecutive hike in the current tightening cycle, which is a remarkable sentence to write about an institution that spent most of the last three decades pinned at or below zero. The central bank also pledged more hikes to come, fueling speculation of another move before year end. The decision was, by most accounts, more hawkish than consensus expectations. You might think that a central bank surprising to the hawkish side would strengthen its currency. You would be wrong. Bank of Japan policy rate: 1.00%. On the balance sheet side, the BOJ said it would stop paring back its bond buying from next April, which is an interesting complement to the rate hikes — an unusual combination that reflects the complexity of its position.
Here is where the labor market stands.
Initial jobless claims: 229,000, up 1.78% on the week
Continuing claims: 1,795,000, up 1.36% on the week
Job openings (JOLTS): 7,618.00, up 10.61% on the month
Quits rate: 1.90, down 5.00% on the month
Unemployment rate: 4.30, flat 0.00% on the month