In 30 seconds: A widely circulated leaderboard shows most major assets—from Bitcoin to Tesla to Trump Coin—remain far below all-time highs, while REITs and gold have emerged as relative winners in 2025-2026 amid AI stock volatility and space-stock collapses. July US PMI data surprised to the upside led by a services surge, while new home sales missed estimates and elevated inflation keeps pressure on the Fed, with European PMIs also showing an unexpected rebound despite energy price risks. The ongoing Iran War, combined with Houthi maritime blockades and drone attacks on energy infrastructure, has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, driving up Treasury yields, hammering tech stocks, and threatening European energy security. The US is escalating trade and technology restrictions against China—including battery patent investigations and defense research bans—while Treasury declined to label China a currency manipulator, and China continues to dominate global clean energy capacity additions.
A widely circulated drawdown leaderboard tells you almost everything you need to know about the current market hierarchy. At the top sits JPMorgan, trading at 0% from its all-time high. Apple is only 1% off its peak. The S&P 500 itself is down just 3%. So far, so normal. Then the gradient steepens. Nvidia is 13% below its high, Amazon is off 17%, Google is down 22%, and Meta has shed 25%. Microsoft sits 31% underwater. Tesla is off 37%, Palantir is down 42%, and Netflix has given back 48%. SpaceX is 49% below its peak. Bitcoin is off 50%. The bottom of the table is where things get theological. MicroStrategy is down 83%. Trump Coin has lost 98%. Melania Coin is off 99%. Meanwhile, the winners are deeply unfashionable. REITs have topped the leaderboard. Gold closed at $4,055.20 on 2026-07-24, up 0.21% on the day. Silver settled at $58.42, gaining 1.08%. Space stocks, which were up 60-80% through end of May, have since experienced what was described as one of the biggest crashes back down to Earth you'll ever see for a subset of stocks. The boring stuff won.
The same Jurrien Timmer driving Asset Performance Rankings: Gold, Stocks, Crypto Drawdowns is also a factor in US PMI Data Beats; Housing and Macro Signals Mixed.
The July S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.8, just below the estimate of 54.4, while the Services PMI printed at 53.6, with the overall Composite PMI matching services at 53.6. July S&P Global U.S. Services PMI: 53.6. S&P Manufacturing PMI 53.8 vs S&P Manufacturing PMI estimate 54.4. The services surge more than offset the manufacturing drag. Housing told a less cheerful story. June new home sales rose 1.6% month over month. The median new home price fell 3.3% to $398,300, while the average selling price sat at $475,400. Broader activity gauges were less cooperative. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index stayed negative in June, with only 40 of 85 indicators making positive contributions. Meanwhile, Europe offered a surprise. The Germany Composite PMI came in at 51.2 versus expectations of 49.7, clearing the expansion threshold. Germany Manufacturing PMI hit 52.2, though Germany Services PMI slipped to 49.6. The caveat, as always: higher energy prices threaten the rebound. As more S&P 500 companies beat on revenue estimates, GDP surprises tend to follow.
Crude prices continued to spiral upward, temporarily breaking back above $100 per barrel as the Iran War escalated and the Houthis more directly joined the conflict with a "maritime blockade" on Saudi Arabia. Drone attacks on refineries and oil tankers are one of the main reasons oil prices have exceeded $100 in the last week. Week over week, crude moved up roughly $6-7 per barrel, which is the kind of move that gets people's attention. The knock-on effects are everywhere. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed nearly a full percentage point since the war began, sitting now at 4.32%, well above the fed funds rate of 3.5-3.75%. The bond market, in other words, is predicting that Fed funds is headed higher. You can see the logic: oil above $100 is inflationary, and inflationary inputs make it hard for the Fed to cut, and possibly force it to hike. Nasdaq 100 down 7% this July. Brutal action while oil prices and rates rise at the same time because of Iran. Europe is having its own version of this problem. European gas futures have surged 50% in just one month. Natural Gas: $2.89. On the supply side, US oil production has grown 1 million barrels per day year over year, a pace described as notable and accelerating from the lows of late 2025.
Treasury concluded Thursday that no major US trading partner manipulated its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage in 2025, placing 10 leading trading partners on an enhanced monitoring list but stopping short of the manipulator label. One economist argues this is less rigorous than it sounds: by not taking a stand on whether the PBOC balance sheet or settlement is the better measure of intervention, Treasury can potentially ignore settlement well above the 2% of GDP intervention threshold, retaining convenient ambiguity. China was active on both sides of the market from 2015 to 2015 may be used as grounds for ignoring that China was basically only on one side of the market in the last 12 months (i.e. the period in the Oct report). Elsewhere the pressure is more direct. International Trade Commission launched an investigation into 3 Chinese battery-material manufacturers over alleged patent violations, threatening to block their products from entering the American market. The Department of Defence updated its restricted list to cover 88 institutions in China, barring DoD-funded researchers from collaborating with them or using their equipment, under restrictions taking effect in the 2026 financial year. China's exports globally (and to Europe) are up, while China's imports globally of manufactures (ex chips) remain flat, and China's imports from Europe are down. China sells more, buys the same amount of everything except semiconductors, and buys less from Europe specifically. On the domestic front, 3 major Chinese lenders issued China's first loans pegged to a key money-market rate, breaking the years-long monopoly of the national loan prime rate (LPR) in pricing credit. And China installed 151 million kilowatts of new electricity generation capacity in the first six months of 2026, with nearly half of the extra capacity coming from grid-scale solar.
Here is what moved this week.
S&P 500: 7,411.98, up 0.05% on the day
Gold: $4,055.20, up 0.21% on the day
US Dollar (DXY): 101.48, up 0.05% on the day
WTI crude: $90.08, down 2.29% on the day
Gas (per gallon): $4.00, up 3.79% on the week
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.58%, up 3 bp on the week
Initial jobless claims: 187,000, down 10.53% on the week
Continuing claims: 1,796,000, down 0.11% on the week
Average hourly earnings: $37.64, up 0.35% on the month