In 30 seconds: Fed Governor Waller's signal favoring a hold at the September meeting has pushed rate hike odds to roughly a coin flip, with the August CPI print now the decisive factor, while analysts debate whether the recent disinflation trend justifies pausing further tightening. Record AI-related computer imports—up 126% year-over-year and now nearly one-fifth of all US imports—are reshaping the trade deficit and capital flows, even as Trump's tariff exemptions for the tech sector draw scrutiny alongside broader tariff policy criticism. Luke Gromen argues that US entitlement obligations and healthcare's outsized role in the economy make cost-cutting politically and fiscally self-defeating, as any recession triggered by reform would accelerate the existing debt spiral. Analysts debate whether gold is re-emerging as the world's reserve currency, how Bitcoin fits alongside it, and whether a loss of Fed credibility could send both assets sharply higher while leaving real purchasing power unchanged.
Fed watching has become vote-tallying. Fed fund futures put the implied probability of a hike at 50.2%, while prediction markets price it at 43%. Either way, it is roughly a coin flip. This is historically unusual territory. If the final tally instead lands at something like a lopsided consensus, that tells you several voters caved from their stated positions, and the Fed remains a one-person institution. Still, Governor Waller remains one bad inflation print away from agreeing to a rate hike. ISM Services PMI 55.4 vs ISM Services PMI estimate 54.1.
Computer and parts imports are running at nearly $700B annualized, up 126% over the last year alone. The category now represents nearly one-fifth of imports on its own, dwarfing every other tariff exemption. Trump has completely exempted the industry from tariffs, so this inbound flow of computers and parts moves duty-free. The broader trade numbers tell the story you would expect. The July deficit came in at $88.6B, better than the $90.2B estimate but sharply wider than the prior month's $71.2B. Imports rose 2.8% month-over-month while exports fell 2.1% month-over-month. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs fell in 2025. The capital-flow side is just as interesting. Korea's forward book grew by $9 billion long dollar from May to end July, all against a customs and current account surplus running near $400 billion. Japanese investors' hedging of new foreign bond purchases: 41%.
There is a fiscal trap so elegant it almost looks designed. Meanwhile, the baseline federal deficit already sits at $2.1T for fiscal 2026. You might think the obvious move is to cut costs somewhere. Healthcare spending represents 17% of the economy. But here is where the arithmetic turns cruel. Healthcare is the largest employer in 38 of 50 US states. Cut healthcare costs and, per the analysis, tax receipts collapse before consumers see any savings, pushing interest and entitlements further beyond revenue — forcing a choice between printing and default. Any policy that induces a recession triggers a debt spiral. One way to see whether the decline has already started: price TLT, NDX, SPXTR, and the Nikkei 225 in gold since 2022. Gold, for its part, closed at $4,520.70, up 3.54% on the day.
The same Luke Gromen driving US Fiscal Debt Spiral and Healthcare Cost Crisis is also a factor in Gold, Bitcoin, and the Global Monetary Order.
Gold closed at $4,520.70 on September 3, 2026, up 3.54% on the day. De Nederlandsche Bank relocated 86 tonnes of gold to London, citing rising geopolitical tensions and the need to deploy reserves more effectively in a crisis. Meanwhile the US Treasury is buying back long-dated debt, and long-end yields have climbed almost 4.3 percentage points in the last six years. The argument — attributed to a macro analyst in the records — is that higher gold prices are Bessent and Warsh's best friend if they want to get out of this jam without collapsing the global financial system. Inflation is already running at 3.3%, and very little in a traditional portfolio clears that. Price major indices in gold since 2022 and the redenomination, one analyst observes, has already started. Gold has risen over 3x in the last few years.
Here is what it costs to borrow money right now.
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.71%, up 5 bp on the week
15-year fixed mortgage: 6.04%, up 1 bp on the week
Auto loan rate (60-month): 7.14%, down 5.18% on the quarter
Credit card rate: 20.94%, down 0.29% on the quarter
Prime rate: 6.75%, flat on the day