— Explainer

How QE actually works.

The Fed types new dollars into its own computer and uses them to buy bonds. The textbook says each of those dollars becomes ten. The last fifteen years of data say it mostly does not. Here is why the textbook and the world disagree, with a slider so you can watch the multiplier move.

— The textbook story

You deposit $1,000 at Bank A. Bank A is required to keep 10% on hand, so it parks $100 and lends the other $900 to someone who wants a car.

The car seller takes that $900 and deposits it at Bank B. Bank B keeps $90, lends out $810. That $810 becomes a deposit at Bank C, which keeps $81 and lends $729. And so on, down the chain.

Add up every link in that chain and the infinite geometric series converges to $10,000 of total deposits from your original $1,000. The formula is tidy: one over the reserve requirement, expressed as a decimal. At 10% reserves, the multiplier is 10.

That multiplier is the lever QE pulls on. Creating reserves is only step one. The textbook assumes steps two through infinity happen automatically.

— Try it yourself

The money multiplier

10.0%
1%20%

Total money created

$10,000

A $1,000 deposit multiplies into $10,000.

Reserve requirement

10.0%

share each bank must park, not lend

Money multiplier

10.00×

1 ÷ (reserve requirement)

Total money created

$10,000

from a $1,000 seed deposit

— How QE short-circuits the multiplier

The classic money multiplier assumes banks lend out every spare dollar of reserves. That is the engine. If the engine stops, the formula stops. Post-2008, the engine stopped.

Since 2008 the Fed has paid banks interest on excess reserves (IOER, now called IORB). Banks can park trillions at the Fed, earn a risk-free yield, and go home. That is a better deal than lending to a small business in a recession, so they took it. Aggregate reserves went from under $50 billion in 2008 to $3 trillion at the QE peak, and most of those reserves just sat there.

QE creates reserves directly. It does not force banks to do anything with them. When banks are happy to hold the reserves at the Fed, the multiplier collapses toward one. The money shows up in the plumbing but never makes it into your checking account, and the inflation the textbook predicts never arrives.

That is why QE's effect on inflation was muted from 2009 through 2021. The inflation finally showed up when fiscal stimulus in 2020-2021 put cash directly in bank accounts, not through the banking channel but through the IRS. Different pipe, different result.

— Want to see the balance sheet?

The aggregate line for all of this, the $9 trillion the Fed has accumulated across four QE programs and two crises, is charted in the quantitative easing glossary entry. It is the clearest picture of how big the Fed's footprint has gotten, and how little of it has unwound.

— FAQ

QE, answered.

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