— Glossary

GDP, in plain English.

It is a $29 trillion scoreboard, two-thirds of which is you deciding whether to buy the thing. When the number slows, your raise slows with it.

— What GDP is made of

U.S. GDP, by component, 2025 Q4.

NX 3%100%= GDPConsumer SpendingC · 71%71%InvestmentI · 18%18%GovernmentG · 13%13%Net ExportsNX · −3%−3%

Shares sum to 100%. Net exports are negative because you import more than you export; the arc above the donut shows the subtraction.

That 68% figure is the one to remember. If you stop buying things, the entire apparatus slows down. Your Tuesday trip to Target is not a footnote to the economy. It is two-thirds of the economy. The Fed can cut rates, Congress can pass a stimulus, a foreign buyer can place a record order for Boeing jets, and none of it moves the needle the way your collective decision to put a new dishwasher on a credit card does. Everyone wants to talk about the apparatus. The apparatus is rounding.

— Real GDP growth, last 8 quarters

Real GDP growth, seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Latest printPrior quarters
-2%0%2%4%SAAR0.8%2024 Q13.6%2024 Q23.3%2024 Q31.9%2024 Q4-0.6%2025 Q13.8%2025 Q24.4%2025 Q30.5%2025 Q4QUARTER

Source: BEA, advance and third estimates. Real means inflation-adjusted.

— What a 2% pace means

Two percent real is the quiet benchmark. Boring is the point.

At 2% real growth, wages rise a little faster than prices, the unemployment rate drifts in the low 4s, and nobody at the Fed has to make a hard choice. The last eight quarters have averaged right inside that zone, which is why the economy feels fine and also why nobody is writing books about it. The read flips two ways. Below 1% for two consecutive quarters and you are in the textbook first shout of a recession. Above 3% sustained and the Fed starts worrying about an overheating labor market and considers hiking. The last print, 2025 Q4 at 0.5%, tells you which side of that runway the economy is currently sitting on.

— FAQ

GDP, answered.

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