Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on February 25, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of February 25, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

27.2%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 24.7% · Soft Landing +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up24.7%
Soft LandingLeading27.2%
Overheating24.1%
Inflation Shock22.3%
Contraction1.7%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of February 25, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Soft Landing (27% probability, moderate confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 25%. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical shock is elevated. The main tension comes from nonfarm payrolls averaging +0k/month, below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score42.7 / 100
Momentum: Rising
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score47.3 / 100
Momentum: Rising
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score45.7 / 100
Momentum: Declining
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score55.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Soft Landing28.4%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock26.4%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Soft Landing; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 8 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling24.7%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to shift higher, core PCE to shift higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. core CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↓ USD index · moderate gap
Overheating24.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, core PCE to move significantly higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. nonfarm payrolls and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · large gap
Inflation Shock22.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, core PCE to move significantly higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. nonfarm payrolls and crude oil are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↓ USD index · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
industrial production +1.4% YoY, above trend
the fed funds rate at 3.6%, near trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

nonfarm payrolls averaging +0K/month, below trend
consumer sentiment at 56.4, well below trend

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield

Diverging

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesSupportive
RatesPositive
CreditSupportive
DollarNeutral
GoldMixed
OilNeutral

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+18.1%	23.9%	0.76
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+15.5%	16.5%	0.94
Russell 2000IWM	+14.3%	17.8%	0.81
GoldGLD	+12.7%	17.6%	0.72
S&P 500SPY	+12.6%	11.8%	1.07
Developed MarketsVEA	+11.0%	12.0%	0.92
Emerging MarketsVWO	+8.5%	14.2%	0.60
HY CorporateHYG	+4.6%	4.4%	1.04
IG CorporateLQD	+2.2%	5.8%	0.38
TIPSTIP	+2.0%	4.0%	0.51
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+0.9%	5.4%	0.16

Energy
Vol 23.9% · Sharpe 0.76
+18.1%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.94
+15.5%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.81
+14.3%
Gold
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.72
+12.7%
S&P 500
Vol 11.8% · Sharpe 1.07
+12.6%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.0% · Sharpe 0.92
+11.0%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.60
+8.5%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 1.04
+4.6%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.38
+2.2%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.51
+2.0%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe 0.16
+0.9%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: February 25, 2026
Data as of: 2026-02-25 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release