— US Macro RegimeAs of September 4, 2026
Leading regime

Soft Landing

28.6%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 25.9% · Soft Landing -0.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

  • CoolingRunner-up25.9%
  • Soft LandingLeading28.6%
  • Overheating25.0%
  • Inflation Shock18.6%
  • Contraction1.9%
Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of September 4, 2026.

The economy is in a Soft Landing regime at 28.6% probability with low confidence. Growth is slowing, inflation is easing, financial conditions are neutral, and geopolitical shock is moderate. Cooling is the main alternative at 25.9%, reflecting the tension between the confirming and disconfirming drivers identified by the model.

— What changed

What moved since the last read

The single biggest shift the model registered, then everything else it flagged.

majorBiggest move

Cooling down 2.3% to 25.9% (was 28.2%)

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with August 28, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

  • majorInflation Shock up 3.0% to 18.6% (was 15.6%)
  • major10-year Treasury yield flipped from confirming to diverging
  • majorS&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging
  • moderateSoft Landing down 0.9% to 28.6% (was 29.5%)
  • moderateOverheating up 0.9% to 25.0% (was 24.1%)
  • moderateContraction down 0.7% to 1.9% (was 2.6%)
  • moderateInflation momentum shifted from falling to declining
  • moderateFinancial conditions score up 2.7 to 51.5 (was 48.8)
  • moderateGeopolitical shock score up 3.7 to 50.3 (was 46.6)
  • moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from stable to surging
  • moderateNew confirming driver: crude oil above trend
  • moderateNew confirming driver: the 10-year yield at 4.8%, well above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 206K (4-week avg), above trend
  • moderateConfirming driver dropped: the 10-year yield at 4.7%, well above trend

— The four internals

What's under the hood

The regime is a blend of four forces. Here is where each one stands and which way it is moving.

  • Growth

    Slowing

    Score45.0 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↑ +0.1 wk

    Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.

  • Inflation

    Easing

    Score41.2 / 100
    Momentum: Declining↑ +1.6 wk

    How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.

  • Financial Conditions

    Neutral

    Score51.5 / 100
    Momentum: Stable↑ +2.7 wk

    How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.

  • Geopolitical Shock

    Moderate

    Score50.3 / 100
    Momentum: Surging↑ +3.7 wk

    Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Is the call firming up or breaking down

Fast market signals versus confirmed hard data. When they agree, the regime is on solid ground. When they split, it is contested.

Leading signals

Overheating31.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing36.5%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where the regime could go from here

The credible next states, and the specific moves in the data that would take us there.

  • Cooling25.9%Primary alternative

    A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. 10-year yield and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
    • → 10-year yield (%) · small gap
    • → HY spread (%) · small gap
  • Overheating25.0%Primary alternative

    A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
    • ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
    • → consumer sentiment · small gap
    • → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
  • Inflation Shock18.6%Credible alternative

    A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield and VIX are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

    • ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
    • ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
    • ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
    • → 10-year yield (%) · small gap
    • ↑ VIX · small gap

— Drivers

What's holding the call up, and what's arguing against it

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

  • core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
  • the 10-year yield at 4.8%, well above trend
  • crude oil above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

  • core CPI at 2.5% YoY, sharply lower
  • wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower
Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine's positioning read, plus how each asset actually behaved on every past day the model scored this regime.

The engine’s read, by asset class

  • EquitiesConstructive

    Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.

  • RatesDuration-friendly

    Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.

  • CreditSpreads stable

    Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.

  • DollarUSD range-bound

    Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.

  • GoldRange-bound

    Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.

  • OilBalanced

    Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

  • Energy

    Vol 23.9% · Sharpe 0.76

    +18.1%

  • Nasdaq 100

    Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.94

    +15.5%

  • Russell 2000

    Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.81

    +14.3%

  • Gold

    Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.72

    +12.7%

  • S&P 500

    Vol 11.8% · Sharpe 1.07

    +12.6%

  • Developed Markets

    Vol 12.0% · Sharpe 0.92

    +11.0%

  • Emerging Markets

    Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.60

    +8.5%

  • HY Corporate

    Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 1.04

    +4.6%

  • IG Corporate

    Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.38

    +2.2%

  • TIPS

    Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.51

    +2.0%

  • 7-10Y Treasury

    Vol 5.4% · Sharpe 0.16

    +0.9%

— What it means for your money

The gap between the model and your Tuesday

The levels the model watches are the same ones that set your payment, your prices, and your yield. Run them on your own numbers.

  • Your mortgage and borrowing

    4.8%

    10-year Treasury yield

    Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. This is the number that sets your monthly payment.

    Mortgage CalculatorFed Rate Impact

  • Your purchasing power

    2.5%

    core CPI

    This is how fast the stuff you buy is getting more expensive. Every point of it is a point off what your cash is worth a year from now.

    Inflation CalculatorReal Return

  • Your savings and cash

    3.6%

    fed funds rate

    What a bank should be paying you to hold cash. If your savings account pays a lot less than this, it is quietly costing you.

    Savings Rate TrackerReal Return

  • Your retirement and risk

    Slowing

    Growth is slowing right now, and growth is what decides whether the next few years treat a 401(k) kindly. Pressure-test the plan before the regime does.

    Retirement DrawdownRecession Stress Test

— What to watch

The variables that would move the call

  • 10-year yield (%)Financial Conditions
    Now: 4.8% → Needs: about 5.1% · momentum neutral
  • HY spread (%)Financial Conditions
    Now: 2.6% → Needs: about 3.1% · momentum neutral
  • consumer sentimentGrowth
    Now: 55.2 → Needs: about 57.1 · momentum neutral
  • nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K)Growth
    Now: +0K/month → Needs: about +32K · momentum neutral
  • VIXGeopolitical Shock
    Now: 14.8 → Needs: about 18.5 · momentum toward
  • core CPI (YoY %)Inflation
    Now: 2.5% YoY → Needs: about 3.0% · momentum away
  • wage growth (YoY %)Inflation
    Now: 3.1% YoY → Needs: about 3.6% · momentum away
  • core PCE (YoY %)Inflation
    Now: 3.3% YoY → Needs: about 3.8% · momentum away

Watch the prints that move these. Economic calendar →

— What would change the call

The price of being wrong

An honest call names what would flip it. Here is the evidence already pulling the other way.

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend and the 10-year yield at 4.8%, well above trend are confirming drivers for the current regime call, but core CPI at 2.5% YoY, sharply lower and wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower are disconfirming drivers that keep Cooling in play.

Evidence against the call

  • core CPI at 2.5% YoY, sharply lower
  • wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower

The call flips toward Cooling if…

A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. 10-year yield and HY spread are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

— History

How we got to Soft Landing

The five-way probability split over time. Hover for any day's exact numbers.

CoolingSoft LandingOverheatingInflation ShockContraction

2026-06-08 → 2026-09-04

Browse day-by-day history Read the weekly deep dive
Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date
September 4, 2026
Data as of
2026-09-04 00:00 UTC
Run trigger
major macro release
Narrative
Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.

Not investment advice. The regime is a model estimate of the macro backdrop, updated as of September 4, 2026. It describes the environment, not what you should buy.

— Free · Daily

Get the briefing in your inbox.

One plain-language market briefing after the close, every market day. Free forever.

Free · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime