Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on March 25, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of March 25, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

32.1%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 24.8% · Inflation Shock 0.0 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling21.4%
Soft Landing20.4%
OverheatingRunner-up24.8%
Inflation ShockLeading32.1%
Contraction1.3%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of March 25, 2026.

The economy is experiencing an Inflation Shock regime driven by energy market disruptions and persistent core inflation. Crude oil prices have surged sharply higher while core PCE inflation remains elevated at 3.1% year-over-year, well above the Federal Reserve's target. Despite some economic slowing and neutral financial conditions, the combination of energy price spikes and sticky underlying inflation defines the current macroeconomic environment.

— What changed

What moved that day

Inflation Shock probability unchanged by 0.0 points. Update driven by major macro release.

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.6 / 100
Momentum: Declining
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score53.4 / 100
Momentum: Rising
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score54.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score74.3 / 100
Momentum: Surging
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Inflation Shock34.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock31.7%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Inflation Shock; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating24.8%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. nonfarm payrolls is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ GPR Index · moderate gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
Cooling21.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to move significantly lower, GPR Index to move significantly lower, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↑ GPR Index · large gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Soft Landing20.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require crude oil to move significantly lower, GPR Index to move significantly lower, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↑ GPR Index · large gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

crude oil sharply higher
core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
geopolitical risk index at 298, well above trend

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesPressured
RatesPressured
CreditPressured
DollarFirmer
GoldFavorable
OilFavorable

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: March 25, 2026
Data as of: 2026-03-25 20:22 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release