Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on March 31, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of March 31, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

33.5%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 24.5% · Inflation Shock +0.8 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.9%
Soft Landing19.9%
OverheatingRunner-up24.5%
Inflation ShockLeading33.5%
Contraction1.2%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of March 31, 2026.

The US economy is in an Inflation Shock regime, driven primarily by a sharp rise in crude oil prices that has pushed gasoline costs well above trend levels. Core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.1% year-over-year, significantly above normal trends, while elevated geopolitical tensions continue to pressure energy markets. However, the regime call carries moderate confidence as both headline and core CPI measures are running below trend, creating mixed signals in the inflation data.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Financial conditions shifted from neutral to restrictive (53.8 to 55.2)

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Compared with March 24, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorGold stance changed from Favorable to Positive but conflicted
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from rising to declining
moderateInflation momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateGeopolitical shock score up 5.8 to 74.6 (was 68.8)

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score43.8 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.2 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score53.4 / 100
Momentum: Rising→ 0.0 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score55.2 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +1.4 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score74.6 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +5.8 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Inflation Shock35.4%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock31.4%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Inflation Shock; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating24.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Cooling20.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to move significantly lower, nonfarm payrolls to shift higher, and gasoline to move significantly lower. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · large gap
- ↑ VIX · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Soft Landing19.9%Credible alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require crude oil to move significantly lower, nonfarm payrolls to shift higher, and gasoline to move significantly lower. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↓ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · large gap
- ↑ VIX · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

crude oil sharply higher
core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
headline CPI at 2.4% YoY, below trend

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and sticky inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is rising while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Sticky inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and restrictive financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with rising inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: March 31, 2026
Data as of: 2026-03-31 21:14 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release