Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on April 3, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 3, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

33.1%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 25.2% · Inflation Shock 0.0 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.1%
Soft Landing20.3%
OverheatingRunner-up25.2%
Inflation ShockLeading33.1%
Contraction1.3%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 3, 2026.

The economy is in an Inflation Shock regime at 33.1% probability with moderate confidence. Overheating is the main alternative at 25.2%. Growth is slowing while inflation is sticky and geopolitical shock is elevated, creating pressures on energy and consumer prices despite some cooling in wage growth.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Financial conditions shifted from restrictive to neutral (55.8 to 54.1)

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Compared with March 27, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorGeopolitical shock shifted from severe to elevated (75.4 to 73.2)
moderateCooling down 0.7% to 20.1% (was 20.8%)
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from declining to stable
moderateInflation score down 2.4 to 51.0 (was 53.4)
moderateInflation momentum shifted from rising to surging
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to surging

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score44.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +1.0 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score51.0 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -2.4 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score54.1 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.7 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score73.2 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -2.2 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Inflation Shock33.8%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock32.6%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Inflation Shock; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating25.2%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
Soft Landing20.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require crude oil to move lower, gasoline to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ USD index · small gap
Cooling20.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to move significantly lower, core CPI to shift higher, and core PCE to shift higher. The key gap is large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. core CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ USD index · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

crude oil sharply higher
core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and sticky inflation from elevated geopolitical shock create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is surging while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Sticky inflation and surging financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as elevated geopolitical shock sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of elevated geopolitical shock, with surging inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: April 3, 2026
Data as of: 2026-04-03 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release