Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on April 7, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 7, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

31.9%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 25.8% · Inflation Shock -0.8 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.3%
Soft Landing20.7%
OverheatingRunner-up25.8%
Inflation ShockLeading31.9%
Contraction1.3%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 7, 2026.

The economy is in a Inflation Shock regime at 31.9% probability with moderate confidence. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, financial conditions are neutral, and geopolitical shock is elevated — a combination where price pressures are being fed by energy costs, with crude oil sharply higher and gasoline prices well above trend reinforcing the supply-driven inflation picture. Overheating is the main alternative at 25.8%, and market confirmation is mixed, reflecting the tension between headline inflation pressures and softer underlying signals.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Financial conditions shifted from restrictive to neutral (55.2 to 52.0)

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with March 31, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
moderateCooling down 0.6% to 20.3% (was 20.9%)
moderateSoft Landing up 0.8% to 20.7% (was 19.9%)
moderateOverheating up 1.3% to 25.8% (was 24.5%)
moderateInflation Shock down 1.6% to 31.9% (was 33.5%)
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from declining to stable
moderateInflation score down 2.7 to 50.7 (was 53.4)
moderateInflation momentum shifted from rising to surging
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 4.1 to 70.5 (was 74.6)

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score44.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +1.0 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score50.7 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -2.7 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score52.0 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -3.2 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score70.5 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -4.1 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Inflation Shock31.8%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.7%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Inflation Shock; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating25.8%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
Soft Landing20.7%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require crude oil to move lower, gasoline to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ gasoline ($/gal) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
Cooling20.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to shift higher, and core PCE to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. core CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
crude oil sharply higher
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and sticky inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is surging while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Sticky inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with surging inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: April 7, 2026
Data as of: 2026-04-07 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release