Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on April 15, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of April 15, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

28.4%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 28.3% · Overheating +0.3 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling21.5%
Soft Landing20.5%
OverheatingLeading28.4%
Inflation ShockRunner-up28.3%
Contraction1.3%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of April 15, 2026.

The economy is in an Overheating regime at 28.4% probability with low confidence. Growth is slowing and inflation is firming, with core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend, headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend, and gasoline prices well above trend all pointing to persistent price pressures even as momentum fades. Inflation Shock is the main alternative at 28.3%, financial conditions are neutral, and geopolitical shock is elevated, meaning external supply-side risks could tip the balance if growth continues to soften.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Regime call changed from Inflation Shock to Overheating

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with April 7, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorOverheating up 2.6% to 28.4% (was 25.8%)
majorInflation Shock down 3.6% to 28.3% (was 31.9%)
majorInflation shifted from sticky to firming (50.7 to 56.8)
majorEquities stance changed from Negative to Cautious, late-cycle risk
majorRates stance changed from Yields biased higher to Yields biased higher
majorCredit stance changed from Spreads vulnerable to Carry positive, spreads uncertain
majorDollar stance changed from USD-supportive to USD firm
majorGold stance changed from Positive but conflicted to Range-bound
majorOil stance changed from Strongly supportive to Constructive
majorWTI crude oil flipped from confirming to diverging
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateCooling up 1.2% to 21.5% (was 20.3%)
moderateFinancial conditions score down 5.5 to 46.5 (was 52.0)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to stable
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 12.8 to 57.7 (was 70.5)
moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from surging to rising
moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil sharply higher

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score44.5 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.3 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score56.8 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +6.1 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score46.5 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -5.5 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score57.7 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -12.8 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating32.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock30.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Inflation Shock28.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move higher, headline CPI to move higher, and core CPI to move higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. HY spread is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → HY spread (%) · small gap
Cooling21.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require crude oil to shift lower, consumer sentiment to shift higher, and nonfarm payrolls to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. crude oil and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
- → HY spread (%) · moderate gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
Soft Landing20.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require core PCE to shift lower, headline CPI to shift lower, and crude oil to shift lower. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and headline CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → HY spread (%) · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.0% YoY, well above trend
headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Surging inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: April 15, 2026
Data as of: 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release