Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on May 12, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of May 12, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

29.1%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 29.1% · Overheating +0.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling21.1%
Soft Landing19.5%
OverheatingLeading29.1%
Inflation ShockRunner-up29.1%
Contraction1.2%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of May 12, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (29% probability, moderate confidence), with Inflation Shock as the main alternative at 29%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is elevated. The main tension comes from consumer sentiment at 53.3, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

WTI crude oil flipped from diverging to confirming

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with May 5, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

moderateCooling down 0.7% to 21.1% (was 21.8%)
moderateSoft Landing down 0.5% to 19.5% (was 20.0%)
moderateInflation Shock up 1.2% to 29.1% (was 27.9%)
moderateInflation score up 6.5 to 66.4 (was 59.9)
moderateFinancial conditions score up 2.3 to 50.1 (was 47.8)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to rising
moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from falling to declining
moderateNew confirming driver: headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
moderateConfirming driver dropped: headline CPI at 3.3% YoY, well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score41.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.2 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score66.4 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +6.5 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score50.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +2.3 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score56.6 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.8 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating33.5%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock31.1%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Inflation Shock29.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require headline CPI to shift higher, core PCE to shift higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
Cooling21.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require headline CPI to shift lower, core PCE to shift lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap
Soft Landing19.5%Credible alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require headline CPI to move lower, core PCE to move lower, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. consumer sentiment and crude oil are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↑ HY spread (%) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.2% YoY, sharply higher
gasoline prices sharply higher

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

consumer sentiment at 53.3, well below trend
capacity utilization at 75.7%, well below trend

Market confirmationStrongly confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

None

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Surging inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: May 12, 2026
Data as of: 2026-05-12 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release