Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on June 30, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of June 30, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

25.6%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Contraction at 24.4% · Overheating -1.8 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.1%
Soft Landing13.2%
OverheatingLeading25.6%
Inflation Shock16.7%
ContractionRunner-up24.4%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of June 30, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (26% probability, low confidence), with Contraction as the main alternative at 24%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from crude oil at $71, -22.2% over 20 days.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Cooling down 2.6% to 20.1% (was 22.7%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with June 23, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorSoft Landing down 2.2% to 13.2% (was 15.4%)
majorOverheating down 7.2% to 25.6% (was 32.8%)
majorContraction up 10.3% to 24.4% (was 14.1%)
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
moderateInflation Shock up 1.7% to 16.7% (was 15.0%)
moderateInflation momentum shifted from stable to declining
moderateNew confirming driver: core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.3% YoY, well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score42.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.9 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score59.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↓ -1.0 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score53.0 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +1.2 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score33.1 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -0.9 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Contraction43.1%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Overheating28.7%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Contraction; lagging signals lean Overheating. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Contraction24.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Contraction would require headline CPI to move significantly lower, core PCE to move significantly lower, and consumer sentiment to move significantly lower. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. crude oil and USD index are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · large gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↓ USD index · small gap
Cooling20.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, crude oil to move higher, and capacity utilization to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. consumer sentiment and capacity utilization are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · moderate gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- ↓ 5Y breakeven inflation (%) · moderate gap
- ↓ USD index · small gap
Inflation Shock16.7%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require headline CPI to move higher, core PCE to move higher, and consumer sentiment to shift higher. The key gap is large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↓ crude oil ($) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
retail sales +6.9% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

crude oil at $71, -22.2% over 20 days
consumer sentiment at 44.8, sharply lower

Market confirmationDiverging

Confirming

None

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but firming inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Declining inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but firming inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Firming inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: June 30, 2026
Data as of: 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release