Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on July 29, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of July 29, 2026

Leading regime

Overheating

27.0%probabilityConfidence: Low

Too hot. Growth and prices both running warm, which keeps the Fed in the room.

Closest alternative: Inflation Shock at 25.5% · Overheating -0.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling23.5%
Soft Landing22.4%
OverheatingLeading27.0%
Inflation ShockRunner-up25.5%
Contraction1.6%

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of July 29, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Overheating (27% probability, low confidence), with Inflation Shock as the main alternative at 26%. Growth is slowing, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.6% yoy, well below trend.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

S&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Compared with July 22, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
moderateOverheating down 0.7% to 27.0% (was 27.7%)
moderateInflation Shock up 0.5% to 25.5% (was 25.0%)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to surging
moderateGeopolitical shock score up 4.3 to 50.9 (was 46.6)
moderateGeopolitical shock momentum shifted from falling to declining
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: gasoline prices well above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Slowing
Score44.8 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +0.8 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score51.3 / 100
Momentum: Falling↓ -0.4 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score54.9 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +1.9 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score50.9 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +4.3 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating30.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Cooling28.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Cooling. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Inflation Shock25.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core PCE to move significantly higher, core CPI to move significantly higher, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. copper/gold ratio is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Cooling23.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core PCE to shift higher, core CPI to shift higher, and wage growth to shift higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. core PCE and core CPI are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · small gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · small gap
Soft Landing22.4%Primary alternative
A transition to Soft Landing would require consumer sentiment to shift higher, 10-year yield to shift higher, and initial claims to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- → initial claims (4-wk avg, K) · small gap
- → capacity utilization (%) · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.4% YoY, well above trend
headline CPI at 3.5% YoY, above trend
gasoline prices above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.6% YoY, well below trend
wage growth at 3.5% YoY, well below trend

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil

Diverging

S&P 500, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesCautious, late-cycle risk
Growth is running hot but sticky inflation and neutral financial conditions cap the upside for equities.
RatesYields biased higher
Falling inflation keeps yields biased higher as the Fed stays on hold.
CreditCarry positive, spreads uncertain
Solid growth supports carry, but sticky inflation creates spread uncertainty.
DollarUSD firm
Sticky inflation and firm growth keep the dollar supported.
GoldRange-bound
Gold is range-bound as strong growth offsets the inflation bid.
OilConstructive
Strong demand and the Hormuz blockade keep oil constructive.

How assets behaved historically in Overheating

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+27.1%	19.5%	1.39
S&P 500SPY	+17.5%	14.5%	1.21
GoldGLD	+12.4%	15.3%	0.81
Emerging MarketsVWO	+12.4%	17.5%	0.71
Developed MarketsVEA	+7.1%	14.9%	0.48
Russell 2000IWM	+5.8%	19.2%	0.30
HY CorporateHYG	+5.1%	4.7%	1.09
TIPSTIP	+4.3%	4.0%	1.08
IG CorporateLQD	+3.2%	5.5%	0.58
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+2.2%	5.2%	0.42
EnergyXLE	-4.6%	23.5%	-0.20

Nasdaq 100
Vol 19.5% · Sharpe 1.39
+27.1%
S&P 500
Vol 14.5% · Sharpe 1.21
+17.5%
Gold
Vol 15.3% · Sharpe 0.81
+12.4%
Emerging Markets
Vol 17.5% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 14.9% · Sharpe 0.48
+7.1%
Russell 2000
Vol 19.2% · Sharpe 0.30
+5.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.7% · Sharpe 1.09
+5.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 1.08
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.5% · Sharpe 0.58
+3.2%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.2% · Sharpe 0.42
+2.2%
Energy
Vol 23.5% · Sharpe -0.20
-4.6%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: July 29, 2026
Data as of: 2026-07-29 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release