Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on September 18, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of September 18, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

26.8%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 25.0% · Soft Landing +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling24.5%
Soft LandingLeading26.8%
OverheatingRunner-up25.0%
Inflation Shock22.3%
Contraction1.4%

The economy is in a Soft Landing regime at 26.8% probability with moderate confidence. Growth is stable, inflation is sticky, financial conditions are restrictive, and geopolitical shock is moderate. Overheating remains the runner-up at 25.0%, as the disconfirming drivers listed above show that not all signals align with the top regime.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Financial conditions shifted from neutral to restrictive (53.5 to 58.1)

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Compared with September 11, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorGeopolitical shock shifted from elevated to moderate (55.7 to 54.6)
moderateSoft Landing down 0.5% to 26.8% (was 27.3%)
moderateInflation Shock up 1.1% to 22.3% (was 21.2%)
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from stable to rising
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from stable to rising
moderateNew confirming driver: initial jobless claims at 203K (4-week avg), above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: the 10-year yield at 4.9%, sharply higher

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score46.5 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +1.3 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score43.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.2 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score58.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +4.6 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score54.6 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.1 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating30.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing33.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Overheating25.0%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and 10-year yield to shift lower. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
Cooling24.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
Inflation Shock22.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and core PCE to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. crude oil is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ crude oil ($) · small gap
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · large gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
crude oil well above trend
initial jobless claims at 203K (4-week avg), above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+18.1%	23.9%	0.76
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+15.2%	16.5%	0.92
Russell 2000IWM	+12.7%	17.7%	0.72
GoldGLD	+12.1%	17.7%	0.68
S&P 500SPY	+12.0%	11.7%	1.02
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.6%	12.1%	0.80
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.5%	14.2%	0.53
HY CorporateHYG	+4.3%	4.4%	0.96
IG CorporateLQD	+1.9%	5.8%	0.33
TIPSTIP	+1.5%	4.0%	0.37
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+0.3%	5.4%	0.06

Energy
Vol 23.9% · Sharpe 0.76
+18.1%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.92
+15.2%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.7% · Sharpe 0.72
+12.7%
Gold
Vol 17.7% · Sharpe 0.68
+12.1%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.02
+12.0%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.80
+9.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.53
+7.5%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.96
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.33
+1.9%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.37
+1.5%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe 0.06
+0.3%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: September 18, 2026
Data as of: 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.