Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on September 30, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of September 30, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

27.2%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 25.9% · Soft Landing +0.8 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up25.9%
Soft LandingLeading27.2%
Overheating22.6%
Inflation Shock22.6%
Contraction1.7%

The economy is in a Soft Landing regime at 27.2% probability with low confidence. Growth is stable and inflation is easing, while financial conditions remain restrictive and geopolitical shock is moderate. Cooling is the main alternative at 25.9%, as the disconfirming drivers — core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower and wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower — suggest cooling pressures that the model weighs but does not find decisive enough to override the top call.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Overheating down 2.4% to 22.6% (was 25.0%)

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with September 23, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorInflation shifted from sticky to easing (42.8 to 37.8)
majorhigh-yield credit spreads flipped from confirming to diverging
moderateCooling up 0.7% to 25.9% (was 25.2%)
moderateInflation Shock up 1.2% to 22.6% (was 21.4%)
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from rising to stable
moderateFinancial conditions score up 3.7 to 63.7 (was 60.0)
moderateFinancial conditions momentum shifted from rising to surging
moderateNew confirming driver: crude oil above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: initial jobless claims at 202K (4-week avg), above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 203K (4-week avg), above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score46.0 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.5 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score37.8 / 100
Momentum: Declining↓ -5.0 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score63.7 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +3.7 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score51.0 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -0.7 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Overheating26.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing34.7%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling25.9%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and headline CPI to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↓ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
Overheating22.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to move lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · moderate gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap
Inflation Shock22.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to shift lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield and 2-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↓ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↓ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 2-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

crude oil above trend
initial jobless claims at 202K (4-week avg), above trend
gasoline prices above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

S&P 500

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+16.8%	23.8%	0.70
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+16.5%	16.5%	0.99
S&P 500SPY	+12.5%	11.7%	1.06
Russell 2000IWM	+12.5%	17.7%	0.71
GoldGLD	+11.2%	17.6%	0.64
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.9%	12.1%	0.82
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.7%	14.3%	0.54
HY CorporateHYG	+3.9%	4.4%	0.88
IG CorporateLQD	+1.3%	5.8%	0.23
TIPSTIP	+1.1%	4.0%	0.28
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-0.1%	5.4%	-0.02

Energy
Vol 23.8% · Sharpe 0.70
+16.8%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.99
+16.5%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.06
+12.5%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.7% · Sharpe 0.71
+12.5%
Gold
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.64
+11.2%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.82
+9.9%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.3% · Sharpe 0.54
+7.7%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.88
+3.9%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.23
+1.3%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.28
+1.1%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe -0.02
-0.1%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: September 30, 2026
Data as of: 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.