Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on October 2, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of October 2, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

28.1%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 27.1% · Soft Landing +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up27.1%
Soft LandingLeading28.1%
Overheating21.5%
Inflation Shock21.6%
Contraction1.7%

The US macro picture points to Soft Landing (28.1% probability, low confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 27.1%. Growth is stable, inflation is easing, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.4% yoy, sharply lower.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Cooling up 2.0% to 27.1% (was 25.1%)

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Compared with September 25, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorOverheating down 3.1% to 21.5% (was 24.6%)
majorInflation shifted from sticky to easing (42.8 to 37.7)
majorS&P 500 flipped from confirming to diverging
moderateSoft Landing up 1.6% to 28.1% (was 26.5%)
moderateInflation Shock down 0.7% to 21.6% (was 22.3%)
moderateGrowth momentum shifted from rising to stable
moderateInflation momentum shifted from declining to rising
moderateFinancial conditions score up 3.0 to 64.8 (was 61.8)
moderateNew confirming driver: crude oil above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg), above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil well above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 202K (4-week avg), above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score45.2 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.7 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score37.7 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -5.1 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score64.8 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +3.0 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score50.5 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.0 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Cooling26.3%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing34.8%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Cooling; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 4 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling27.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and headline CPI to move higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
Inflation Shock21.6%Primary alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to shift lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. 10-year yield and 2-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 2-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Overheating21.5%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to move lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and nonfarm payrolls are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · moderate gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- → nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K) · small gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg), above trend
crude oil above trend
gasoline prices above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.0% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationDiverging

Confirming

None

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+17.2%	23.8%	0.72
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+16.6%	16.5%	1.00
S&P 500SPY	+12.3%	11.7%	1.05
Russell 2000IWM	+12.3%	17.6%	0.70
GoldGLD	+10.0%	17.8%	0.56
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.5%	12.1%	0.78
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.2%	14.2%	0.51
HY CorporateHYG	+3.7%	4.4%	0.83
IG CorporateLQD	+1.1%	5.8%	0.19
TIPSTIP	+1.0%	4.0%	0.26
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-0.3%	5.4%	-0.05

Energy
Vol 23.8% · Sharpe 0.72
+17.2%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 1.00
+16.6%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.05
+12.3%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.70
+12.3%
Gold
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.56
+10.0%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.78
+9.5%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.51
+7.2%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.83
+3.7%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.19
+1.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.26
+1.0%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe -0.05
-0.3%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: October 2, 2026
Data as of: 2026-10-02 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.