Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on October 6, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of October 6, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

29.3%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 28.3% · Soft Landing +1.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up28.3%
Soft LandingLeading29.3%
Overheating20.8%
Inflation Shock19.7%
Contraction1.9%

The US macro picture points to Soft Landing (29.3% probability, low confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 28.3%. Growth is stable, inflation is easing, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.4% yoy, sharply lower.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Cooling up 2.9% to 28.3% (was 25.4%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with September 29, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorSoft Landing up 2.9% to 29.3% (was 26.4%)
majorOverheating down 2.8% to 20.8% (was 23.6%)
majorInflation Shock down 3.3% to 19.7% (was 23.0%)
majorInflation shifted from sticky to easing (42.4 to 37.1)
majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateInflation momentum shifted from declining to stable
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 4.0 to 47.4 (was 51.4)
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices near trend
moderateNew confirming driver: industrial production +1.4% YoY, above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg), above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 202K (4-week avg), above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score45.2 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.8 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score37.1 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -5.3 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score64.2 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +1.0 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score47.4 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -4.0 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Cooling28.2%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing38.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Cooling; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 4 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling28.3%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and headline CPI to move higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
Overheating20.8%Primary alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to move lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. consumer sentiment and copper/gold ratio are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · moderate gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Inflation Shock19.7%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to shift lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. 10-year yield and 2-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- ↑ core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↑ wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 2-year yield (%) · small gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg), above trend
gasoline prices near trend
industrial production +1.4% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.0% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

S&P 500

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+17.2%	23.8%	0.72
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+16.6%	16.5%	1.00
S&P 500SPY	+12.3%	11.7%	1.05
Russell 2000IWM	+12.3%	17.6%	0.70
GoldGLD	+10.0%	17.8%	0.56
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.5%	12.1%	0.78
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.2%	14.2%	0.51
HY CorporateHYG	+3.7%	4.4%	0.83
IG CorporateLQD	+1.1%	5.8%	0.19
TIPSTIP	+1.0%	4.0%	0.26
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-0.3%	5.4%	-0.05

Energy
Vol 23.8% · Sharpe 0.72
+17.2%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 1.00
+16.6%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.05
+12.3%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.70
+12.3%
Gold
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.56
+10.0%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.78
+9.5%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.51
+7.2%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.83
+3.7%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.19
+1.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.26
+1.0%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe -0.05
-0.3%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: October 6, 2026
Data as of: 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.