Historical snapshot

This is the regime read as it stood on October 9, 2026, from that day’s model output. See today’s regime →

— US Macro RegimeAs of October 9, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

30.8%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 30.1% · Soft Landing +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up30.1%
Soft LandingLeading30.8%
Overheating20.0%
Inflation Shock17.0%
Contraction2.1%

The US macro picture points to Soft Landing (30.8% probability, low confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 30.1%. Growth is stable, inflation is easing, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.4% yoy, sharply lower.

— What changed

What moved that day

majorBiggest move

Cooling up 3.0% to 30.1% (was 27.1%)

Quantitative moves in the top 10% historically. The model is repricing significantly. Compared with October 2, 2026 (5 sessions ago).

majorSoft Landing up 2.7% to 30.8% (was 28.1%)
majorInflation Shock down 4.6% to 17.0% (was 21.6%)
majorS&P 500 flipped from diverging to confirming
moderateOverheating down 1.5% to 20.0% (was 21.5%)
moderateInflation momentum shifted from rising to stable
moderateFinancial conditions score down 2.2 to 62.6 (was 64.8)
moderateGeopolitical shock score down 5.8 to 44.7 (was 50.5)
moderateNew confirming driver: gasoline prices near trend
moderateNew confirming driver: industrial production +1.4% YoY, above trend
moderateNew confirming driver: initial jobless claims at 198K (4-week avg), elevated
moderateConfirming driver dropped: crude oil above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: gasoline prices above trend
moderateConfirming driver dropped: initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg), above trend

— The four internals

Under the hood

Growth
Stable
Score45.6 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +0.4 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score36.5 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -1.2 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score62.6 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -2.2 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score44.7 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -5.8 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Leading / lagging

Firming or breaking down

Leading signals

Cooling30.7%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing38.0%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Cooling; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 4 weeks.

— What's next

Where it could go from here

Cooling30.1%Primary alternative
A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and copper/gold ratio to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. copper/gold ratio is already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → core CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → wage growth (YoY %) · moderate gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · small gap
- → headline CPI (YoY %) · moderate gap
- → core PCE (YoY %) · moderate gap
Overheating20.0%Credible alternative
A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to move lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. consumer sentiment and copper/gold ratio are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · moderate gap
- → wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- → consumer sentiment · small gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · small gap
Inflation Shock17.0%Credible alternative
A transition to Inflation Shock would require core CPI to move significantly higher, 10-year yield to shift lower, and wage growth to move significantly higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. 10-year yield and USD index are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.
- → core CPI (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ 10-year yield (%) · small gap
- → wage growth (YoY %) · large gap
- ↑ USD index · small gap
- ↑ copper/gold ratio · moderate gap

— Drivers

What held the call up

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

initial jobless claims at 198K (4-week avg), elevated
gasoline prices near trend
industrial production +1.4% YoY, above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.0% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

S&P 500

Diverging

10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

— Asset implications

What this regime has meant for markets

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+18.5%	23.8%	0.78
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+16.5%	16.5%	1.00
S&P 500SPY	+12.6%	11.7%	1.08
Russell 2000IWM	+11.9%	17.6%	0.68
GoldGLD	+10.4%	17.8%	0.58
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.1%	12.1%	0.75
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.3%	14.3%	0.51
HY CorporateHYG	+3.8%	4.4%	0.85
IG CorporateLQD	+1.3%	5.8%	0.22
TIPSTIP	+1.1%	4.0%	0.28
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-0.1%	5.4%	-0.02

Energy
Vol 23.8% · Sharpe 0.78
+18.5%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 1.00
+16.5%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.08
+12.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.68
+11.9%
Gold
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.58
+10.4%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.75
+9.1%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.3% · Sharpe 0.51
+7.3%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.85
+3.8%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.22
+1.3%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.28
+1.1%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe -0.02
-0.1%

Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: October 9, 2026
Data as of: 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.