Question 1

What is an FOMC meeting?

Accepted Answer

Eight times a year, twelve people sit around a table in Washington and decide what short-term interest rates will be. That is the Federal Open Market Committee. Four of those meetings also produce the dot plot, which is a chart of where each participant thinks rates should end up over the next few years. The dots are anonymous. You are not supposed to know whose dot is whose, which has never stopped anyone from guessing. The market-moving moment is usually the Chair's press conference right after, when a reporter asks the question the statement didn't answer and the Chair either answers it or visibly avoids it. Both of those are signals.

Question 2

What is the Consumer Price Index report?

Accepted Answer

CPI is the headline inflation number the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes once a month. It tracks a basket of goods and services BLS built to represent what a typical urban household actually buys. Headline CPI includes everything. Core CPI strips out food and energy because those swing on weather and geopolitics and muddy the underlying trend. The Fed watches core more closely than headline. But the print that matters to you directly is the one that sets your Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, the principal accrual on your TIPS, and the reset rate on your I bonds. If you hold any of those, one morning a month moves your money.

Question 3

What is the monthly jobs report?

Accepted Answer

First Friday of the month, 8:30 AM Eastern. Two surveys. The establishment survey asks companies how many workers they paid and reports nonfarm payrolls plus average hourly earnings. The household survey asks a sample of households whether they have a job and reports the unemployment rate and labor-force participation. The two surveys routinely disagree in any given month. That is normal. Economists take payrolls from the establishment survey, unemployment from the household survey, and move on. It is the single most market-moving U.S. data release. On release Fridays, the entire bond market reprices in the first minute.

Question 4

How do these events actually move markets?

Accepted Answer

Markets do not price the number. They price the surprise. Every release has a consensus forecast going in. What moves the tape is the gap between the forecast and the print. A CPI reading two-tenths hotter than expected can take the 10-year yield up 15 basis points in a minute, drag mortgage rate sheets with it by afternoon, and delete a rate cut from the forward curve. FOMC decisions move markets through three channels: the wording changes in the statement, the median dot in the new dot plot, and whatever the Chair says off-script in the press conference. The press conference is usually where the damage happens.

Question 5

How should I prepare ahead of a Fed decision?

Accepted Answer

For you, preparation is less about trading and more about locks. If a cut is widely expected and you are shopping for a CD or T-bill, lock the current yield before the meeting. Those reprice within hours. If a surprise is possible and you are inside a mortgage rate-lock window, avoid committing in the 48 hours before the statement unless your lender offers a float-down. If you carry variable-rate debt, run the different scenarios through the Fed Rate Impact calculator so you know what each outcome costs you per month. The goal is simple. Don't be surprised by your own finances.

The dates that actually move markets.

The calendar, decoded.

Mortgage Calculator

Fed Rate Impact

Savings Rate Tracker

The dates that actually move markets.

The calendar, decoded.

Mortgage Calculator

Fed Rate Impact

Savings Rate Tracker

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