— Weekly Macro Report

Week of March 31, 2026

Leading regime: Inflation Shock · 33.5%Data as of 2026-03-31 21:14 UTCDownload PDF ↓

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of March 31, 2026.

The US economy is in an Inflation Shock regime, driven primarily by a sharp rise in crude oil prices that has pushed gasoline costs well above trend levels. Core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.1% year-over-year, significantly above normal trends, while elevated geopolitical tensions continue to pressure energy markets. However, the regime call carries moderate confidence as both headline and core CPI measures are running below trend, creating mixed signals in the inflation data.

— US Macro RegimeAs of March 31, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

33.5%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 24.5% · Inflation Shock +0.8 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.9%
Soft Landing19.9%
OverheatingRunner-up24.5%
Inflation ShockLeading33.5%
Contraction1.2%

— 90-day history

The run-up to this week

CoolingSoft LandingOverheatingInflation ShockContraction

2025-12-31 → 2026-03-31

— US internals

The four axes

Growth
Slowing
Score43.8 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.2 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score53.4 / 100
Momentum: Rising→ 0.0 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score55.2 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +1.4 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score74.6 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +5.8 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Key drivers

What holds the call up, and what argues against it

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

crude oil sharply higher
core PCE at 3.1% YoY, well above trend
gasoline prices well above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
headline CPI at 2.4% YoY, below trend

Market confirmationPartially confirming

Confirming

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

gold

— Week in review

What moved this week

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Versus March 24, 2026.

Regime probabilities

Cooling20.9%+0.1
Soft Landing19.9%+0.1
Overheating24.5%-0.4
Inflation Shock33.5%+0.3
Contraction1.2%-0.1

Internals

GrowthSlowing43.8↑ +0.2
InflationSticky53.4→ 0.0
Financial ConditionsRestrictive55.2↑ +1.4
Geopolitical ShockElevated74.6↑ +5.8

— Asset playbook

Positioning read and the empirical record

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and sticky inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is rising while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Sticky inflation and rising financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and restrictive financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with rising inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

— Leading / lagging

Signal alignment

Leading signals

Inflation Shock35.4%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock31.4%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentAligned

The two layers point the same way, which puts the call on firmer ground. Leading signals lean Inflation Shock; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock.

— Market context

How the tracked assets did this week

GoldGLD+6.5%
Developed MarketsVEA+1.5%
Emerging MarketsVWO+1.4%
EnergyXLE+0.7%
7-10Y TreasuryIEF+0.6%
IG CorporateLQD+0.6%
TIPSTIP+0.5%
HY CorporateHYG+0.5%
Russell 2000IWM-0.3%
S&P 500SPY-0.4%
Nasdaq 100QQQ-1.2%

— Household impact

What this week means for your money

The levels the model watches, and the tools that turn them into your number.

Your mortgage and borrowing
4.3%
10-year Treasury yield
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. This is the number that sets your monthly payment.
Mortgage Calculator Fed Rate Impact
Your purchasing power
2.5%
core CPI
This is how fast the stuff you buy is getting more expensive. Every point of it is a point off what your cash is worth a year from now.
Inflation Calculator Real Return
Your savings and cash
3.6%
fed funds rate
What a bank should be paying you to hold cash. If your savings account pays a lot less than this, it is quietly costing you.
Savings Rate Tracker Real Return
Your retirement and risk
Slowing
Growth is slowing right now, and growth is what decides whether the next few years treat a 401(k) kindly. Pressure-test the plan before the regime does.
Retirement Drawdown Recession Stress Test

— What to watch

The variables that would move the call

nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K)Growth
Now: +0K/month → Needs: about +36K · momentum away
10-year yield (%)Financial Conditions
Now: 4.3% → Needs: about 4.2% · momentum away
crude oil ($)Geopolitical Shock
Needs: about $90 (down from $100) · momentum away
core CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 2.5% YoY → Needs: about 3.2% · momentum toward
core PCE (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.1% YoY → Needs: about 3.8% · momentum toward
gasoline ($/gal)Geopolitical Shock
Needs: about $3.75/gal (down from $3.99) · momentum away
VIXGeopolitical Shock
Now: 27.6 → Needs: about 19.6 · momentum away

Watch the prints that move these. Economic calendar →

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— What would change my mind

The price of being wrong

Energy prices and core PCE support Inflation Shock, but both headline and core CPI readings are trending below normal levels.

Evidence against the call

core CPI at 2.5% YoY, well below trend
headline CPI at 2.4% YoY, below trend

The call flips toward Overheating if…

A transition to Overheating would require crude oil to move lower, core CPI to move higher, and core PCE to move higher. Current momentum is working against this transition. nonfarm payrolls and 10-year yield are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

— Personal Stakes Signal

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Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: March 31, 2026
Data as of: 2026-03-31 21:14 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release

Today’s regime All weekly reports