— Weekly Macro Report

Week of May 20, 2026

Leading regime: Inflation Shock · 30.0%Data as of 2026-05-20 00:00 UTCDownload PDF ↓

Freshness

This snapshot is more than a day old. The next engine run refreshes it. As of May 20, 2026.

The US macro picture points to Inflation Shock (30% probability, low confidence), with Overheating as the main alternative at 29%. Growth is slowing, inflation is firming, and geopolitical shock is elevated. The main tension comes from wage growth at 3.6% yoy, well below trend.

— US Macro RegimeAs of May 20, 2026

Leading regime

Inflation Shock

30.0%probabilityConfidence: Low

Prices are the story, and not in a good way. Stocks and bonds can lose together.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 28.9% · Inflation Shock +0.1 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling20.6%
Soft Landing19.4%
OverheatingRunner-up28.9%
Inflation ShockLeading30.0%
Contraction1.1%

— 90-day history

The run-up to this week

CoolingSoft LandingOverheatingInflation ShockContraction

2026-02-18 → 2026-05-20

— US internals

The four axes

Growth
Slowing
Score44.0 / 100
Momentum: Stable↑ +2.2 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Firming
Score67.0 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +0.3 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Neutral
Score53.8 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +2.7 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Elevated
Score59.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +1.7 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Key drivers

What holds the call up, and what argues against it

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, sharply higher
core PCE at 3.2% YoY, sharply higher
gasoline prices sharply higher

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

wage growth at 3.6% YoY, well below trend
core CPI at 2.7% YoY, below trend

Market confirmationMixed

Confirming

10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads, WTI crude oil

Diverging

S&P 500, gold

— Week in review

What moved this week

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Versus May 13, 2026.

Regime probabilities

Cooling20.6%-0.3
Soft Landing19.4%+0.1
Overheating28.9%-0.2
Inflation Shock30.0%+0.5
Contraction1.1%-0.1

Internals

GrowthSlowing44.0↑ +2.2
InflationFirming67.0↑ +0.3
Financial ConditionsNeutral53.8↑ +2.7
Geopolitical ShockElevated59.2↑ +1.7

— Asset playbook

Positioning read and the empirical record

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesNegative
Slowing growth and firming inflation from the Hormuz blockade create a dual headwind for risk assets.
RatesYields biased higher
Inflation momentum is surging while growth is slowing, keeping yields biased higher as the market prices out cuts.
CreditSpreads vulnerable
Firming inflation and surging financial conditions compress risk appetite, leaving spread products under pressure.
DollarUSD-supportive
Safe-haven demand and neutral financial conditions support the dollar as the Hormuz blockade sustains uncertainty.
GoldPositive but conflicted
The regime favors gold as an inflation hedge, but current price action is not fully confirming as dollar strength crowds out the gold bid.
OilStrongly supportive
Oil is both a driver and beneficiary of the Hormuz blockade, with surging inflation momentum reinforcing the feedback loop.

How assets behaved historically in Inflation Shock

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+70.6%	33.3%	2.12
Russell 2000IWM	+26.6%	27.4%	0.97
S&P 500SPY	+17.4%	22.6%	0.77
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+12.3%	28.3%	0.43
Developed MarketsVEA	+10.8%	21.6%	0.50
HY CorporateHYG	+3.6%	10.3%	0.35
Emerging MarketsVWO	-0.8%	23.3%	-0.04
TIPSTIP	-2.7%	7.6%	-0.35
GoldGLD	-3.4%	18.6%	-0.18
IG CorporateLQD	-5.8%	9.8%	-0.59
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-9.8%	8.0%	-1.22

Energy
Vol 33.3% · Sharpe 2.12
+70.6%
Russell 2000
Vol 27.4% · Sharpe 0.97
+26.6%
S&P 500
Vol 22.6% · Sharpe 0.77
+17.4%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 28.3% · Sharpe 0.43
+12.3%
Developed Markets
Vol 21.6% · Sharpe 0.50
+10.8%
HY Corporate
Vol 10.3% · Sharpe 0.35
+3.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 23.3% · Sharpe -0.04
-0.8%
TIPS
Vol 7.6% · Sharpe -0.35
-2.7%
Gold
Vol 18.6% · Sharpe -0.18
-3.4%
IG Corporate
Vol 9.8% · Sharpe -0.59
-5.8%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 8.0% · Sharpe -1.22
-9.8%

— Leading / lagging

Signal alignment

Leading signals

Overheating32.8%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Inflation Shock29.6%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Inflation Shock. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— Market context

How the tracked assets did this week

EnergyXLE+3.8%
S&P 500SPY-0.1%
HY CorporateHYG-0.1%
Nasdaq 100QQQ-0.2%
7-10Y TreasuryIEF-0.6%
IG CorporateLQD-0.6%
Developed MarketsVEA-0.6%
TIPSTIP-0.7%
Russell 2000IWM-1.0%
Emerging MarketsVWO-2.1%
GoldGLD-3.0%

— Household impact

What this week means for your money

The levels the model watches, and the tools that turn them into your number.

Your mortgage and borrowing
4.6%
10-year Treasury yield
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. This is the number that sets your monthly payment.
Mortgage Calculator Fed Rate Impact
Your purchasing power
2.7%
core CPI
This is how fast the stuff you buy is getting more expensive. Every point of it is a point off what your cash is worth a year from now.
Inflation Calculator Real Return
Your savings and cash
3.6%
fed funds rate
What a bank should be paying you to hold cash. If your savings account pays a lot less than this, it is quietly costing you.
Savings Rate Tracker Real Return
Your retirement and risk
Slowing
Growth is slowing right now, and growth is what decides whether the next few years treat a 401(k) kindly. Pressure-test the plan before the regime does.
Retirement Drawdown Recession Stress Test

— What to watch

The variables that would move the call

headline CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.8% YoY → Needs: about 4.0% · momentum toward
core PCE (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.2% YoY → Needs: about 3.4% · momentum toward
gasoline ($/gal)Inflation
Now: z=2.2 → Needs: z=2.7 · momentum toward
crude oil ($)Geopolitical Shock
Needs: about $99 (down from $103) · momentum toward
consumer sentimentGrowth
Now: 53.3 → Needs: about 55.4 · momentum toward
10-year yield (%)Financial Conditions
Now: 4.6% → Needs: about 4.8% · momentum toward

Watch the prints that move these. Economic calendar →

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— What would change my mind

The price of being wrong

headline CPI at 3.8% YoY supports Inflation Shock, but wage growth at 3.6% yoy keeps Overheating in play.

Evidence against the call

wage growth at 3.6% YoY, well below trend
core CPI at 2.7% YoY, below trend

The call flips toward Overheating if…

A transition to Overheating would require headline CPI to shift higher, core PCE to shift higher, and gasoline to shift higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. headline CPI and core PCE are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

— Personal Stakes Signal

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Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: May 20, 2026
Data as of: 2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release

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