— Weekly Macro Report

Week of September 18, 2026

Leading regime: Soft Landing · 26.8%Data as of 2026-09-18 00:00 UTCDownload PDF ↓

The economy is in a Soft Landing regime at 26.8% probability with moderate confidence. Growth is stable, inflation is sticky, financial conditions are restrictive, and geopolitical shock is moderate. Overheating remains the runner-up at 25.0%, as the disconfirming drivers listed above show that not all signals align with the top regime.

— US Macro RegimeAs of September 18, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

26.8%probabilityConfidence: Moderate

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Overheating at 25.0% · Soft Landing +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

Cooling24.5%
Soft LandingLeading26.8%
OverheatingRunner-up25.0%
Inflation Shock22.3%
Contraction1.4%

— 90-day history

The run-up to this week

CoolingSoft LandingOverheatingInflation ShockContraction

2026-06-22 → 2026-09-18

— US internals

The four axes

Growth
Stable
Score46.5 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +1.3 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Sticky
Score43.2 / 100
Momentum: Declining↑ +0.2 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score58.1 / 100
Momentum: Rising↑ +4.6 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score54.6 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.1 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Key drivers

What holds the call up, and what argues against it

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend
crude oil well above trend
initial jobless claims at 203K (4-week avg), above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationPartially diverging

Confirming

high-yield credit spreads

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield

— Week in review

What moved this week

Quantitative moves near the historical median. Normal weekly variation. Versus September 11, 2026.

Regime probabilities

Cooling24.5%-0.2
Soft Landing26.8%-0.5
Overheating25.0%-0.2
Inflation Shock22.3%+1.1
Contraction1.4%-0.2

Internals

GrowthStable46.5↑ +1.3
InflationSticky43.2↑ +0.2
Financial ConditionsRestrictive58.1↑ +4.6
Geopolitical ShockModerate54.6↓ -1.1

— Asset playbook

Positioning read and the empirical record

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+18.1%	23.9%	0.76
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+15.2%	16.5%	0.92
Russell 2000IWM	+12.7%	17.7%	0.72
GoldGLD	+12.1%	17.7%	0.68
S&P 500SPY	+12.0%	11.7%	1.02
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.6%	12.1%	0.80
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.5%	14.2%	0.53
HY CorporateHYG	+4.3%	4.4%	0.96
IG CorporateLQD	+1.9%	5.8%	0.33
TIPSTIP	+1.5%	4.0%	0.37
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	+0.3%	5.4%	0.06

Energy
Vol 23.9% · Sharpe 0.76
+18.1%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 0.92
+15.2%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.7% · Sharpe 0.72
+12.7%
Gold
Vol 17.7% · Sharpe 0.68
+12.1%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.02
+12.0%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.80
+9.6%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.53
+7.5%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.96
+4.3%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.33
+1.9%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.37
+1.5%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe 0.06
+0.3%

— Leading / lagging

Signal alignment

Leading signals

Overheating30.6%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing33.2%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Overheating; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 6 weeks.

— Market context

How the tracked assets did this week

GoldGLD+0.6%
IG CorporateLQD+0.3%
Nasdaq 100QQQ+0.2%
HY CorporateHYG-0.1%
7-10Y TreasuryIEF-0.2%
TIPSTIP-0.4%
S&P 500SPY-0.7%
Emerging MarketsVWO-0.8%
EnergyXLE-1.1%
Russell 2000IWM-1.8%
Developed MarketsVEA-2.1%

— Household impact

What this week means for your money

The levels the model watches, and the tools that turn them into your number.

Your mortgage and borrowing
5.0%
10-year Treasury yield
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. This is the number that sets your monthly payment.
Mortgage Calculator Fed Rate Impact
Your purchasing power
2.4%
core CPI
This is how fast the stuff you buy is getting more expensive. Every point of it is a point off what your cash is worth a year from now.
Inflation Calculator Real Return
Your savings and cash
3.6%
fed funds rate
What a bank should be paying you to hold cash. If your savings account pays a lot less than this, it is quietly costing you.
Savings Rate Tracker Real Return
Your retirement and risk
Stable
Growth is stable right now, and growth is what decides whether the next few years treat a 401(k) kindly. Pressure-test the plan before the regime does.
Retirement Drawdown Recession Stress Test

— What to watch

The variables that would move the call

10-year yield (%)Financial Conditions
Now: 5.0% → Needs: about 4.7% · momentum away
consumer sentimentGrowth
Now: 55.2 → Needs: about 56.8 · momentum toward
crude oil ($)Geopolitical Shock
Needs: about $104 (down from $100) · momentum toward
core CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 2.4% YoY → Needs: about 2.9% · momentum away
wage growth (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.1% YoY → Needs: about 3.6% · momentum away
core PCE (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.3% YoY → Needs: about 3.8% · momentum away
headline CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.4% YoY → Needs: about 3.9% · momentum away

Watch the prints that move these. Economic calendar →

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— What would change my mind

The price of being wrong

core PCE at 3.3% YoY, above trend, crude oil well above trend, and initial jobless claims at 203K (4-week avg), above trend support the current regime call, but core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower and wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower introduce tension that prevents a clean signal and keep Overheating as a plausible alternative.

Evidence against the call

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.1% YoY, sharply lower

The call flips toward Overheating if…

A transition to Overheating would require core CPI to move significantly higher, wage growth to move significantly higher, and 10-year yield to shift lower. Key gaps are large and momentum is moving away from transition-compatible levels. 10-year yield and consumer sentiment are already near transition-compatible levels. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

— Personal Stakes Signal

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Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: September 18, 2026
Data as of: 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.

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