— Weekly Macro Report

Week of October 2, 2026

Leading regime: Soft Landing · 28.1%Data as of 2026-10-02 00:00 UTCDownload PDF ↓

The US macro picture points to Soft Landing (28.1% probability, low confidence), with Cooling as the main alternative at 27.1%. Growth is stable, inflation is easing, and geopolitical shock is moderate. The main tension comes from core cpi at 2.4% yoy, sharply lower.

— US Macro RegimeAs of October 2, 2026

Leading regime

Soft Landing

28.1%probabilityConfidence: Low

The rare good outcome. Inflation drifts down without the job market breaking.

Closest alternative: Cooling at 27.1% · Soft Landing +0.2 pts on the day

All five regimes

CoolingRunner-up27.1%
Soft LandingLeading28.1%
Overheating21.5%
Inflation Shock21.6%
Contraction1.7%

— 90-day history

The run-up to this week

CoolingSoft LandingOverheatingInflation ShockContraction

2026-07-06 → 2026-10-02

— US internals

The four axes

Growth
Stable
Score45.2 / 100
Momentum: Stable↓ -0.7 wk
Is the economy expanding or slowing. Jobs, output, spending.
Inflation
Easing
Score37.7 / 100
Momentum: Rising↓ -5.1 wk
How fast prices are rising, and whether the trend is up or down.
Financial Conditions
Restrictive
Score64.8 / 100
Momentum: Surging↑ +3.0 wk
How tight money is. Yields, credit spreads, the cost of borrowing.
Geopolitical Shock
Moderate
Score50.5 / 100
Momentum: Surging↓ -1.0 wk
Stress from outside the model. Oil, war risk, market volatility.

— Key drivers

What holds the call up, and what argues against it

Confirming

Points that support the current regime call

initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg), above trend
crude oil above trend
gasoline prices above trend

Disconfirming

Points that argue against it

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.0% YoY, sharply lower

Market confirmationDiverging

Confirming

None

Diverging

S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, high-yield credit spreads

— Week in review

What moved this week

Quantitative moves above the 75th percentile. The model is responding to meaningful shifts in the data. Versus September 25, 2026.

Regime probabilities

Cooling27.1%+2.0
Soft Landing28.1%+1.6
Overheating21.5%-3.1
Inflation Shock21.6%-0.7
Contraction1.7%+0.2

Internals

GrowthStable45.2↓ -0.7
InflationEasing37.7↓ -5.1
Financial ConditionsRestrictive64.8↑ +3.0
Geopolitical ShockModerate50.5↓ -1.0

— Asset playbook

Positioning read and the empirical record

The engine’s read, by asset class

EquitiesConstructive
Growth is stable and inflation is contained, creating a constructive backdrop for equities.
RatesDuration-friendly
Balanced growth and inflation keep yields range-bound with a duration-friendly bias.
CreditSpreads stable
Stable growth and contained inflation support tight spreads.
DollarUSD range-bound
Balanced conditions leave the dollar range-bound without a strong directional catalyst.
GoldRange-bound
Without a strong inflation or recession signal, gold trades range-bound.
OilBalanced
Balanced supply and demand leave oil without a strong directional catalyst.

How assets behaved historically in Soft Landing

Annualized figures across every past day the model scored this regime. History, not a forecast.

Asset	Ann. return	Volatility	Sharpe
EnergyXLE	+17.2%	23.8%	0.72
Nasdaq 100QQQ	+16.6%	16.5%	1.00
S&P 500SPY	+12.3%	11.7%	1.05
Russell 2000IWM	+12.3%	17.6%	0.70
GoldGLD	+10.0%	17.8%	0.56
Developed MarketsVEA	+9.5%	12.1%	0.78
Emerging MarketsVWO	+7.2%	14.2%	0.51
HY CorporateHYG	+3.7%	4.4%	0.83
IG CorporateLQD	+1.1%	5.8%	0.19
TIPSTIP	+1.0%	4.0%	0.26
7-10Y TreasuryIEF	-0.3%	5.4%	-0.05

Energy
Vol 23.8% · Sharpe 0.72
+17.2%
Nasdaq 100
Vol 16.5% · Sharpe 1.00
+16.6%
S&P 500
Vol 11.7% · Sharpe 1.05
+12.3%
Russell 2000
Vol 17.6% · Sharpe 0.70
+12.3%
Gold
Vol 17.8% · Sharpe 0.56
+10.0%
Developed Markets
Vol 12.1% · Sharpe 0.78
+9.5%
Emerging Markets
Vol 14.2% · Sharpe 0.51
+7.2%
HY Corporate
Vol 4.4% · Sharpe 0.83
+3.7%
IG Corporate
Vol 5.8% · Sharpe 0.19
+1.1%
TIPS
Vol 4.0% · Sharpe 0.26
+1.0%
7-10Y Treasury
Vol 5.4% · Sharpe -0.05
-0.3%

— Leading / lagging

Signal alignment

Leading signals

Cooling26.3%

Fast-moving market and survey data. Where the economy may be heading.

Lagging signals

Soft Landing34.8%

Confirmed hard data. Where the economy demonstrably is.

Signal alignmentDiverging

The two layers disagree, so the regime is contested. Leading signals lean Cooling; lagging signals lean Soft Landing. Leading signals typically lead the confirmed data by about 4 weeks.

— Market context

How the tracked assets did this week

EnergyXLE+1.1%
Nasdaq 100QQQ+0.7%
Russell 2000IWM-0.2%
S&P 500SPY-0.3%
TIPSTIP-0.4%
7-10Y TreasuryIEF-0.7%
HY CorporateHYG-0.7%
IG CorporateLQD-0.8%
Emerging MarketsVWO-1.3%
Developed MarketsVEA-1.4%
GoldGLD-3.6%

— Household impact

What this week means for your money

The levels the model watches, and the tools that turn them into your number.

Your mortgage and borrowing
5.2%
10-year Treasury yield
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed's overnight rate. This is the number that sets your monthly payment.
Mortgage Calculator Fed Rate Impact
Your purchasing power
2.4%
core CPI
This is how fast the stuff you buy is getting more expensive. Every point of it is a point off what your cash is worth a year from now.
Inflation Calculator Real Return
Your savings and cash
3.8%
fed funds rate
What a bank should be paying you to hold cash. If your savings account pays a lot less than this, it is quietly costing you.
Savings Rate Tracker Real Return
Your retirement and risk
Stable
Growth is stable right now, and growth is what decides whether the next few years treat a 401(k) kindly. Pressure-test the plan before the regime does.
Retirement Drawdown Recession Stress Test

— What to watch

The variables that would move the call

10-year yield (%)Financial Conditions
Now: 5.2% → Needs: about 5.0% · momentum away
2-year yield (%)Financial Conditions
Now: 4.9% → Needs: about 4.6% · momentum away
copper/gold ratioGeopolitical Shock
Now: 1.5610 → Needs: about 1.5614 · momentum toward
consumer sentimentGrowth
Now: 51.7 → Needs: about 53.6 · momentum neutral
nonfarm payrolls (3mo avg chg, K)Growth
Now: +0K/month → Needs: about +31K · momentum neutral
core CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 2.4% YoY → Needs: about 3.1% · momentum toward
wage growth (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.0% YoY → Needs: about 3.7% · momentum toward
headline CPI (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.4% YoY → Needs: about 4.1% · momentum toward
core PCE (YoY %)Inflation
Now: 3.0% YoY → Needs: about 3.7% · momentum toward

Watch the prints that move these. Economic calendar →

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— What would change my mind

The price of being wrong

initial jobless claims at 200K (4-week avg) supports Soft Landing, but core cpi at 2.4% yoy keeps Cooling in play.

Evidence against the call

core CPI at 2.4% YoY, sharply lower
wage growth at 3.0% YoY, sharply lower

The call flips toward Cooling if…

A transition to Cooling would require core CPI to move higher, wage growth to move higher, and headline CPI to move higher. Momentum is broadly moving in the right direction, but gaps remain. Assumes other conditions remain constant.

— Personal Stakes Signal

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Sources & method

Every number on this page is produced by the Personal Stakes US macro engine and read straight from its published output. The website does not recompute the model, re-rank regimes, or invent values. Where a figure is missing, the section is left out rather than guessed.

Reference date: October 2, 2026
Data as of: 2026-10-02 00:00 UTC
Run trigger: major macro release
Narrative: Prose written by a language model into a fixed template; all numbers are injected from the model output, never written by the model.

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